Prospects of development of the basic branches of economy of the USA.
Prospects of development of the basic branches of economy of the USA.
The magazine "Business Week" has published the forecast of development of the cores
Branches of economy of the USA in 2001 In the come year rates
Gross national product gain in the United States will essentially be slowed down and
Will make, as expect, 3,1 %. Many American companies already
Have reconsidered planned sales volumes and have arrived aside
Decrease. It is expected, that in 2001 there will be a considerable
Reduction of number of the occupied. So, company "Aetna" plans to dismiss
5 thousand employees, branches "General Motors", located in
To the North America, namereny to reduce number occupied on 10 thousand
Gain of investments into the new equipment, according to the forecast,
About 6,9 % against 14,5 % in 2000 In connection with decrease will be slowed down
Rates of development of economy of countries of Western Europe and Asia will worsen
Prospects of growth of the American export.
If profits in 2001 are more low, than it is expected, it
It will negatively be reflected in a status of the financial market of the USA:
Falling of the prices for actions will proceed, delivery conditions will worsen
Credits to the companies, inflow of the venture capital will decrease.
Rates of a gain of manufacture of computers in
2001, under the forecast "Business Week", about 16,6 %, then will be slowed down
As within the last 10 years they exceeded 20 %. At the same time
The computer companies will increase manufacture of digital players,
Digital videocameras and servers. A sales volume of semiconductors
Will increase on 2,75 %. However, despite essential growth of sales,
Profits of the companies making this production, will raise only on
11 % against 94 % in 2000, as in connection with expansion of capacities
Last year the volume of release of semiconductors will exceed
Demand for them. Profits of firms which let out special chips,
Used in manufacture of the various goods - from cars to
TVs, will increase on 30 %. Rates of a gain of a sales volume
Microprocessors will essentially be slowed down. So, sales of this
Production made by company "Intel", in 2001, as
Expect, will increase only by 10 % against 20 % in the late nineties.
Growth of incomes of telecommunication branch
It will be slowed down. If in 1998 - 1999 incomes of the companies,
Rendering telecommunication services, have grown on the average on
26 % last year they have increased by 12,7 %, and in 2002, on
To the forecast "Merrill Lynch", they will raise only on 8,6 %. Capital
Expenses of these companies current year as expect, will increase on
1,1 % against 31,3 % in 2000 manufacture Volume in this branch in
Current year will increase on the average by 7 % - to 291,5 bln. dollars,
Labour productivity - on 2,6 %.
Last years were favorable for the American companies,
Mass media operating in sphere (mass-media).
It is declared, that in 2001 the largest will be carried out
Merge (the companies "America Online" and "Time Warner" will unite),
Which will influence development of all branch. It is expected, that in
Current year there will be some more large associations of the companies, that
Along with a proceeding decontrol of this sector of economy
In other countries will promote increase of interest to actions
The given companies in the world financial market.
Experts believe, that while it is difficult to define, how will affect
Merges of the companies of mass-media on branch development as a whole. A situation
Becomes complicated expected delay of growth of the advertising industry,
Which is vital for majority activity
The companies occupied in sphere of mass media. (On
To the forecast "Universal McCann", incomes of advertising branch in 2001
Will increase approximately only on 6 % against almost 10 % in 2000).
For the advertising industry 2001 will be less
Favorable, than 2000 According to the forecast "Morgan Stanley Dean
Witter ", expenses of the companies on advertising will increase only by 4,5 % - to
166 bln. dollars In connection with closing of many Internet companies
Incomes of advertising through the Internet will decrease. Productivity
Work in branch will increase on 1,3 %.
Delay of development of the American economy in 2001 is negative
It will be reflected in activity of the companies occupied in the financial
Sector. Signs of deterioration of position in this branch
Economy of the USA have started to appear already in the end of 2000 So,
The management "Chase Manhattan" has dismissed 5 thousand from the 95 thousand
Employees. (It on 60 % exceeds the planned figure.) in
Current year competitive struggle between banks will become aggravated,
Brokers and the insurance companies. The volume of the problem will increase
Loans. In 2000 the quantity of credits, is not enough protected
Solvency of the borrower, has increased on 70 % and has reached 3,3 %
(63,3 bln. dollars) total amount of outstanding loans. In the last
Some years reserves against losses under credits have sharply decreased and
Now make only 1,41 % of all not paid loans
(The lowest level since 1989).
The insurance sector will continue to develop
Fast rates. According to the forecast "Business Week", insurance
Awards in 2001 will increase on 7 %. Incomes of actions of the companies,
Operating in this branch, will grow also. Thanking
To increase of interest rates and increase in incomes of actions
Investment incomes of insurance firms for 9 months 2000
Have increased on 2,2 % - to 29,2 bln. dollars, while in 1999
They have decreased on 3,3 %.
In 2001, under the forecast "Business Week", in insurance sector
Process of merge of the companies will proceed. The large European
Insurance firms will expand the activity in the market of the USA.
The American insurance companies and their clients even more often will be
To use the Internet that will allow to lower expenses as so
And others. In 2000 through the Internet it has been sold insurance policies
For the sum 2 bln. dollars, that twice more than in 1999 In
2001 as expect, this indicator will reach 3 bln. dollars
Delay of development of the American economy can is essential
To lower profits of the insurance companies as will cause
Reduction of purchases of new houses and cars which it is necessary
To insure.
The pharmaceutical companies in 2001
Will face a growing competition from firms,
Letting out the medicines sold under chemical names
("generic version"), that can lead to delay of rates of growth
Pharmaceutical industry. Current year will proceed
Process of merge of the large companies operating in this branch, that
Will allow them to lower expenses. Negative influence on development
To pharmaceutical industry in 2001 will render number increase
Patents for medical preparations. Under the forecast "SG Cowen
Securities ", since 2000 on 2005 patents and other measures of protection
Will mention sales of pharmaceutical production on
Home market in volume on the average in 34,6 bln. dollars annually.
The pharmaceutical companies at creation of preparations will be
Actively to use biotechnologies and achievements of gene engineering.
Position in agricultural branch
In 2001 will improve a little. The prices on selhoztovary will begin
To raise. According to the forecast "American Farm Bureau Federation",
The American export of agricultural production to the flowing
To year will increase on 4 % - to 51,5 bln. dollars the Positive role
Stabilisation of an economic situation in Russia and the countries will play
Asia which increase import selhoztovarov from the USA. However
Mistrust of buyers to genetically modified products
A food and fear before the cow furiousness can lead
To reduction of a sales volume of agricultural production as
In the country, and abroad.
Substantial increase of awards of medical insurance and
Decrease in administrative expenses promoted improvement
Positions in public health services sphere. Increase of awards
Has led to growth of cost of actions of the organisations of public health services and
Has created a good basis for development of the given branch in 2001 On
To the forecast "Business Week", current year awards of the medical
Insurance will increase for 10 - 12 %.
However increase of awards does not solve all problems of the companies
Medical insurance. So, "Aetna U. S. Healthcare",
Declared in the end of last year about increase in insurance awards
On 11 - 13 % and dismissal of 13 % of the employees, has lost 2 million
Clients. The companies of medical insurance, mark
The American experts, do not meet the requirements of patients and
The medical personnel, first of which insist on
To working out of more flexible and expensive systems of the medical
Insurance, and the second complains of insufficient receipts on
To medical insurances.
The next years costs of the medical insurance companies can
To increase in connection with expected increase of cost retsepturnyh
Preparations and an increasing share of the elderly population demanding
More expensive medical maintenance. In case of the essential
Delays of rates of development of economy cost increase
Medical insurances it will negatively be reflected in position of the hired
Workers as employers will shift on them additional
Expenses.
Rates of development of motor industry
In 2001 will be slowed down. A sales volume of cars in the USA in
Current year, under the forecast "Business Week", it will be reduced to 5,7 % -
To 16,5 million unit It was expected, that in 2000 a sales volume
Will decrease for 4 %, however he has grown on 3,6 %. A share of the American
Manufacturers of cars in home market will continue
To decrease owing to toughening of a competition from the Asian
The companies, first of all "Toyota Motor" and "Honda Motor". Delay
Rates of growth of manufacture will concern also three motorcar giants - "General
Motors "," Ford "," DaimlerChrysler ". In the worst position, on
To opinion of experts, it will appear "DaimlerChrysler", which already in IV
Quarter has reduced manufacture volume to 1,2 bln. dollars
Toughening of conditions of delivery of credits will promote
To rise in price of cars.
However, despite expected reduction of a sales volume,
Current year, as well as the last two years, according to experts,
Will be favorable for motor industry of the USA. Release
New advanced models of cars will support
Interest of buyers to production of this branch.
Thanks to increase of world demand and a stable situation on
The aviation market a sales volume of production aerospace
The industries in 2001, under the forecast
"Aerospace Industries Association", will increase to 145,3 billion
Dollars Company "Boeing", according to experts, will increase
Manufacture of commercial air liners with 490 in 2000 to 530 in
Current year. Incomes of their sale will increase from 30 billion to 33
Bln. dollars accordingly. Administration of J. Bush as expect,
Will spend more means for researches and workings out, and
Also on the defensive industry that will positively affect on
Development of the aerospace industry in 2001 Under the forecast
"Aerospace Industries Association", purchases by production Pentagon
This branch in 2001 will increase on 5 % - to 47,6 bln. dollars
Sales volume in retail trade, it agree
To the forecast "National Retail Federation", in 2001 will increase on 5 %
- To 880 bln. dollars trade through the Internet Will extend. Many
The companies of retail trade will direct means not on
Acquisition of the new areas, and on reorganisation already existing.
Incomes of the cargo transport companies
In 2001, under the forecast "Standard and Poor's", will increase on 3,2 %,
Having exceeded 470 bln. dollars Active use of the Internet
Will allow to lower costs of the transport companies and their expenses
Clients. At the same time the high prices for fuel will render the negative
Influence on activity of cargo transport firms, especially
Small, many of which cannot sustain such expenses.
Delay of rates of development of the American economy will lead
To reduction of volume of the cargoes transported by lorries and
By rail.
The come year will be favorable for the companies which are engaged
Rendering of professional services. According to
To the forecast, their incomes in 2001 will increase by 18 % - to 138 billion
Dollars (Partially at the expense of reduction of number occupied in
The Internet companies.) recently five of such firms - "iXL
Enterprises "," Lance "," MarchFirst "," Scient "," Xpeditor "have dismissed
2,8 thousand employees. Now in the USA five operate
The large companies offering various professional services,
Including auditor and consulting. Last years data
The companies have started to give new types of service. So, "Ernst and
Young "since 1996 renders services on sphere information
The safety, which volume from now on dews on 51 % annually.
"Pricewaterhouse Coopers" expands insurance business.
Activity of the companies occupied in sphere of the tourist
Business, in 2001 will extend slightly. According to
To the forecast "Business Week", this indicator will average
3,2 %. Delay of rates of a gain of the American economy can
To call reduction in demand for tourist services.
If the price for oil does not exceed 26 dollars for barr.,
Industrial profit of the airlines rendering the tourist
Services, in 2001, under the forecast "Air Transport Association",
Will increase on 25 % - to 7,5 bln. dollars However costs on the worker
Force as expect, will increase by 10 %.
Rates of expansion of hotel business in connection with decrease
Demand will a little be slowed down. Nevertheless cost increase
Hotel rooms will promote current year to growth
Profits of hotels on 6,7 % - to 25,6 bln. dollars
Sharp reduction of activity of the companies occupied in sphere
The real estate, in 2001, according to experts "Business
Week ", it is not expected. Though growth of building of premises under office and
Habitation it will be slowed down, the real estate market will not be oversaturated, as in
The end of the previous periods of economic lifting. One of the main things
The reasons of it is more cautious relation of banks to loans under
Building of habitation and toughening of conditions of delivery of such credits.
If in economy of the USA there will be no recession, and will be observed
Only delay of rates of development, the companies occupied in all spheres
The real estate (from premises under office to habitation and hotels), in 2001
Under the forecast "Business Week", will expand the activity on 3
- 5 %. However the volume of building of houses will decrease to 1,43 million unit
Against 1,59 million in 2000 of Sale of the constructed houses
Will be reduced to 4,53 million unit (4,87 million in 2000).
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//* an information Source: BIKI, 1.02.01
//* Reg. Nom. - 1110200124.10-------------------------------------------
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