In economy of Nigeria.
In economy of Nigeria.
As informed BIKI (number from April, 12th, 2001 see), recently
Visit of the president of Nigeria O.Obasandzho to Russia, in a course has taken place
Which has been reached a number of arrangements on development
Trade and economic and scientific and technical cooperation between
Two countries. The precondition for its strengthening is lifting in
To economy of both states in connection with a favorable conjuncture
In the world oil market and improvement internal political
Conditions both in Russia, and in Nigeria.
From time of the termination of board in Nigeria military men and arrival to
The authorities of the civil president of O.Obasandzho of the price for oil have grown
More than twice, accordingly have considerably increased
Receipts in the state treasury. There were positive
Changes in payment relations with an external world, about what
Mentioned below given (bln. dollars) testify:
19992000 1) 2001 2)
1. Balance foreign trade 0,9 6,2 5,3
Balance
2. Balance under "invisible" articles
The balance of payments-4,7-6,1-6,5
3. Balance of the balance of payments on
To current operations (1 + 2)-3,8 0,1-1,2
4. Balance of balance of movement-0,2 0,7 1,5
Capitals
5. Balance of the balance of payments (1-4,0 0,8 0,3
+ 2 + 4)
1) the Estimation. 2) the forecast.
The governmental economists predict a gain for 2001
Gross national product in 4,5 - 5,0 % (considerable growth should affect
The State expenditure). At the same time serious obstacles
On a way of acceleration of development there are three major factors:
Insufficient development of an infrastructure, presence of the considerable
Numbers of the unprofitable enterprises in public sector,
Uncooperative altitude of investors to investments in the Nigerian
Economy (except for extraction of hydrocarbonic raw materials). In the such
Conditions gross national product gain in 2001, according to the newspaper "Financial
Times ", hardly considerably will exceed 3 % (so
The population of the considered country increases during
Year).
Realisation of the promise of the government is improbable to double in
Current year manufacture in power sector. Despite
Additional profit on an oil recovery (2,2 million barr. A day) in
Current of last two years, in the country faults take place with
Power supply, and turns behind household fuel still
Remain the universal phenomenon.
In 2000 rather moderate economic has been reached
Growth - 3,8 %, thus the conjuncture was especially favorable:
The prices for oil remained high, and weather conditions
Promoted agriculture development. A target indicator
For 2003 - gross national product gain in 10 % - is represented to the majority
Analysts absolutely unreal, as already in the end
Current year the national economy overheat is possible.
In February, 2001 Nigeria was visited by delegation of IMF for an estimation
Prospects of use reserve (stand-by) a loan in 1 billion
Dollars which became a basis for December arrangements with
"The Parisian club" creditors about revision of terms of repayment
Nigerian debts. Experts of IMF did not recommend
Sharp increase in the State expenditure on the basis of use
The increased incomes in petrodollars. However politicians
Nigeria namereny to create visibility of economic prosperity in
Threshold of the elections appointed for 2002 and 2003 of O.Obasandzho
Has actually supported the initiative on doubling of capital investments in
2001
In intermediate term prospect financing preservation on the such
High level it is improbable. However, in the nearest 5 - 10 years
There will be an essential increase in an oil recovery, as
Operation of new deep-water deposits will begin
The hydrocarbonic raw materials, however the similar tendency on
To public revenues it is hardly possible, as the oil
The companies should defray huge investment expenses to
Section of profits with the government. The last bears the raised
Financial obligations, for example before occupied in
Public sector. After O.Obasandzho's coming to power
The average level of wages of civil servants has grown in
5 times without essential reduction of their number. Nigeria
Achieves decrease in debt burden, referring on poverty
Millions Nigerians. However the huge are simultaneously assigned
Means for prestigious projects, for example 330 mln. dollars on
Stadium building in Abudzhe (all State expenditure on
Education only nenamnogo exceed the specified sum). On
To IMF calculations, public expenses at three levels - federal,
Regular and local - will make 2200 billion najr, that is equivalent
56 % OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.
Growth of the governmental assignments "has already urged forward" inflation
(Which reaches now in recalculation for a year of 15,5 %),
Increase in monetary weight in circulation in December, 1999 - November
2000 has exceeded 43 %, pressure upon a course of the national amplifies
Currencies. In the free market for 1 dollars give on the average on 14 %
The big sum in najrah, than on an official rate.
The big trouble of the international financial organisations
The structure of internal capital investments calls. For the last 5
Years when the share of investments into gross national product has made 22 %, a share of the private
Sectors in total capital investments was obviously low - 8 %,
Therefore efficiency of investment activity is low. In
The end of 90th years investments in 8 mln. dollars were required for
Increases in manufacture at 1 mln. dollars In normal
To developing economy, by calculations of experts, return from
Uses of capital investments should be twice above. On
To opinion of researchers, the situation should change after sale
Property parts to private businessmen.
Privatisation of the state enterprises, suppressing
Which majority is among remunerative, to these
Time passed extremely inertly. The IMF recommended the prompt
Privatisation at the minimum injection of the state
Means. At the same time the budget for 2001 provides expenses
On development of power and ferrous metallurgy in 78 billion najr, that
Testifies to adherence of the government of strategy on
Strengthening of financial support of some branches with the subsequent
Sale of the companies operating in them.
Under the privatisation program (its realisation lags behind the schedule
Approximately on half a year) to privatisation are subject more than 100
The enterprises, including the hotels, separate objects in
The industries of mineral fertilizers, saharorafinadnoj,
Pulp-and-paper, steelmaking branches, insurance,
To electric power industry, petro-and gazopererabotke, mechanical engineering,
Telecommunication and other sectors. Current year
Privatisation of 41 enterprises is planned. Strategic partners
Will receive from 51 to 60 % of actions, other part will enter
Privatisation fund, from which actions at the favorable
To conjuncture will go for sale at stock exchange.
In 2001 it is planned to sell a controlling interest
State telecommunication company "Nitel" (it agree
To the plan - 2 bln. dollars). At the first stage potential buyers
Will offer the business plans from which the best will be chosen
Elements for drawing up of the definitive variant arranging
The seller. At the second stage potential buyers will define, that
They can offer from its part.
Among other enterprises privatised in 2001 - 6
Hotels, the insurance companies "Nicon Insurance"and"Nigeria
Re-Insurance ", two banks -" Assurance Bank "and" Afribank ", two
Newspaper concern, group of the industrial enterprises. By estimations
The western economists, a circle wishing to get these objects, not
Differing high level of a hardware, it is narrowest.
At the same time to privatisation in Nigeria certain interest
Have shown western avtomobilestroitelnye corporations. Are submitted
Demands for acquisition of rolling factory and the company "Delta
Steel ".
Cп? time of the beginning of realisation last year the new
The privatisation program 13 enterprises are sold. Basically
The cedation of actions to the key investor took place. It was possible
To involve multinational corporation investments, in particular in the cement industry
Have invested the capital British "Blue Circle Industries" and Norwegian
"Scancem International".
By the end of January, 2001 at the expense of privatisation it has been received 19,6
Billion najr. Sale "National Oil and Chemical Co" to the Nigerian
To the investor "Conpetro" the Transaction has brought to treasury 5,3 mln. dollars
Was exposed to criticism because of the admitted infringements in advantage
Politically influential investors, whereas the most worthy
The applicant, according to independent experts, was
The South African company "Engen" supervised malajzijskoj
"Petronas".
Incomes of privatisation should improve the financial considerably
Position of Nigeria burdened with large external debts.
The debt problem of Nigeria is in many respects connected with the large
Loans in the early eighties (during board
Civil president S.Shagari). Crediting was carried out
Under the low interest (the rate in the London interbank market
libor it was equaled only 3 %). Falling of the prices for oil in the middle
80th years, growth libor to 13 % and coming to power in Nigeria military men
(As a result payments on account of repayment of a debt of a steel it is artificial
To be limited) have created an unsettled debt problem.
Efforts on revision of terms were repeatedly undertaken
Payments to "the Parisian club" (in 1986, 1989 and 1991), and
4th time re-structuring of a debt of this organisation took place in
The end of last year. In the relations with leading creditors
Nigeria has achieved following conditions: under commercial loans
Payments will be carried out within 18 years with 3-year
The moratorium, and on loans within the limits of an official aid - during
20 years with a 10-year-old grace period. As a result debt service
In the nearest fifth anniversary will manage Nigeria in 2,0 - 2,2 billion
Dollars
The good will reservation provides, that in case of observance
Conditions of the agreement from IMF about the reserve credit and transactions about
Revision of terms of repayment of a debt with "the Parisian club" last
Will consider possibility of decrease in debt loading on the sum in 21,5
Bln. dollars which Nigeria recognised as a debt to 14 members
"Club".
Official representatives of Nigeria declare, that, as it
Payments to creditors have essentially exceeded volume of the involved
Loans and in connection with an active role of the given country in maintenance
The world and stability in region (expenses on these purposes have reached 10
The bln. dollars), it can apply for the same preferential
Conditions which Poland and Egypt in due time have achieved. Main
The economic adviser of president F.Asiodu considers, that size
Cumulative debts should be reduced by 80 %. By data
On the end of 2000, an external debt of Nigeria reached 28,5 bln. dollars
(Including to "the Parisian club" - 21,5 billion, international
To the financial organisations - 3,5 billion, to "the London club" - 2,0
Billion, to holders of promissory notes - 1,5 billion).
Nigeria does not fall under the initiative of IMF and IBRD about decrease
Debt loading on the poorest countries, though about competency
Such approach discussion till now is conducted. Inclusion of Nigeria in
The given program would lead to doubling of expenses on it. However
The IMF and IBRD already face the big problems at
Financing of the given initiative. As to Nigeria,
Its reference to number of the poorest states from the high
Debts could affect inflow to the country negatively
Foreign investments. F.Asiodu considers, that the basic interest
The countries consists "in maintenance of receipt of straight lines foreign
Investments on billions dollars ".
To the most attractive to the foreign capital remains
Oil and gas sector of Nigeria.
Petroleum industry of Nigeria in the conditions of the favorable
World conjuncture rough lifting worries. The government
Plans oil recovery doubling by 2010 - to 4 million barr. In
Days.
Strengthening konkurennoj struggle for most is observed
Perspective shelf deposits. In December, 2000
The government has agreed to 50 %-s' participation of the American
Companies "Chevron" in working out of deep-water deposit OPL
250 and its services as the operator. Blow on "Shell" is struck,
Long time of the were leader in oil-extracting sector
Nigeria. "Chevron" namerena to make use of the experience which has been saved up
By working out of deep-water deposits in Gulf of Mexico,
To Brazil and Angola.
However the first deep-water deposit of Nigeria Bonga will begin
To maintain (in 2003) the competitor "Chevron" - the company
"Shell".
Continental deposits traditionally involved interest
Foreign corporations owing to high quality of extracted oil
And low operational costs (2 - 5 dollars for barr.).
Perhaps, sabotage with was the unique negative factor
The parties of local population which aspired not to admit
Control loss over the basic local riches - oil. That not
Less as a whole position for the foreign companies in
Oil-extracting sector of Nigeria gradually improves. The joint venture with
Participation "Shell" in 2000 has increased extraction by 100 thousand barr. In
Days, and in 2001 - for 60 thousand - to 860 thousand This indicators
It is planned to finish by 2004 to 1,5 million barr.
The Nigerian participant of the joint venture "National Petroleum Co" it is considerable
Better, than before, carries out of the obligations on investments.
Lifting in branch is promoted by relative normalisation
Positions in delta of Niger that was promoted by investments "Shell" in
Development of economy and social sphere of the given region.
Certain role that circumstance, that has played also after
Country return to the civil form of board in 1999 9
The increase in the share have achieved oil-extracting states in
Federal incomes of an oil recovery to 13 %.
The petroleum-refining industry of Nigeria worries in
Present time is far not the best times. Formally capacities 4
Nigerian NPZ are calculated on 445 thousand reception t gasoline in a year,
That on 1/3 exceeds internal requirements. However in
The validity these enterprises are maintained only on 30 %. For
Branch upgrades are required huge financial expenses.
Only for reconstruction NPZ in Kaduna research 240 is necessary
Mln. dollars
In 2000 the country had to import from abroad 80 %
Consumed gasoline. Import operations brought the big
Incomes to Nigerian officials who as a matter of fact were not
Are interested in normal job NPZ. In 2001 of purchase for
By boundary were reduced to 60 % partially owing to the developed
Vicious practice. In the beginning participants of tenders on distribution
Licences for gasoline import leave with offers,
Providing the low prices. At reception of contracts they or
Do not carry out of the taken obligations on its import, or request
The overestimated prices for imported fuel.
As a result the problem recently has sharply become aggravated with
Deficiency of gasoline. The president O.Obasandzho has faced with
Necessity of the decision of a dilemma: or to reduce grants (ktorye
Manage to the state in 1 bln. dollars in a year and strengthen
Exclusive positions "NPC") and to displease the population, or
To leave the prices for gasoline at former level - 22 najry (or 18 ts.)
For 1 l but not to solve a problem of shortage of automobile fuel, and
Means, a problem of universal turns. In such conditions all
Transition to market system of supply becomes more actual
Mineral oil, however it is fraught with mass protests of the population,
Got used to cheapness of these goods. Possibly, compromise
Stage-by-stage transition to market system can become the decision.
The gas industry of Nigeria gradually turns to one
From leading branches of national economy. Gas stocks
Are estimated in 150 - 180 bln. cubic foot., that puts the country on
10 place in the world. On each barrel of extracted oil it is necessary
1 thousand cubic
Foot. Gas. However now 90 % of passing gas
It is burnt in torches. Thus, on a share of Nigeria in
obshcheplanetarnyh scales it is necessary 1/4 all burnt in
Torches of this kind of fuel. For position improvement in
To ecological sphere and struggle against squandering the government
Has set the task to stop such fatal practice by 2008
"Chevron" at factory "Escravos" c began to receive 1997
gazokondensat for the subsequent export.
100 million cubic foot. The cleared gas is on sale Nigerian
The gas company. However while the given kind of hydrocarbonic raw materials
Arrives on the market in szhizhennom a kind basically through a consortium
"Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas" (49 % of actions belong "NPC",
25,6 % - "Shell", 15 % - "TotalFinaElf" and 10,4 % - "Agip").
As foreign partners posess the most part
The authorised capital, the project is realised with the big efficiency and
Good prospects for the subsequent development. On a basis
Long-term contracts gas receive Italian "Enel",
Spanish "Gas Natural", Portuguese "Transgas", French
"Gas de France" and Turkish "Botas". "NLNG" has
Several tankers for transportation szhizhennogo gas and
Own gazoraspredelitelnoj a network. Unlike
Oil pipelines gas pipelines almost do not become object of sabotage
From local population. The second project on SPG namereny
To carry out the American consortium in structure "ExxonMobil",
"Chevron", "Texaco" and "Conoco".
Less successful in the gas industry are projects,
Carried out counting on the African market. Doubts in
Profitability of the project yet do not allow to conduct job on
To building of the West African gas pipeline, on which
Fuel should arrive abreast the region countries.
If extracting branches of Nigerian economy are on
Lifting in agrarian sector obvious instability is observed.
The agriculture of Nigeria at the present stage faces with
Such problems, as deficiency of ground resources, degradation
Soils, weak development of an infrastructure, first of all the road.
The government declares the support of branch and puts
Problem on agricultural production expansion in the flowing
To year on 6 % in comparison with 4 % in 2000 Recently the president of the Island
Obasandzho has informed on intention of the central authorities to increase number
Projects on rendering assistance to agrarian sector, in particular on
To warranting of incomes of farmers and providing of access of the small
selhozproizvoditelej to system of operative crediting.
Critics of the governmental initiatives declare the prime
Necessities of maintenance of countrymen a network of roads for
Deliveries of production to the market. The governmental policy is not clear
On variety of the questions connected with development of agrarian sector.
For example, farmers and importers cannot find out, what
Real position of the authorities concerning subsidising of sales
Mineral fertilizers. Agroeconomists consider necessary
The state support in this sphere of that
Intensive operation of the earths has led to their exhaustion and sharp
Requirements for application of fertilizers. Productivity, for example,
Corn has decreased with 2 t on hectares in 1975 to 500 kg in 2000 In
The long-term prospect to the country is threatened with deficiency of the foodstuffs,
If small farmers who play the basic role in it
Manufacture, will not receive under the subsidised prices of fertilizer and
Agricultural machinery.
Nigerian agromanufacturers lose the positions in
The international division of labour. So, in the past Nigeria was
The leading manufacturer of palm-oil, however now
It lags behind the countries of South East Asia, in particular Malaysia,
Both on scales, and on a production efficiency. IBRD
Gives soft loans for lifting given podotrasli,
However financed projects it is not enough produmanny and consequently
Often appear not productive.
In financing the role of local banks, that could increase
More that their business in modern conditions differs the high
Profitableness.
Bank system of Nigeria at the present stage actually
Has two-level structure. The bottom link receives the big
Development at the expense of high profitableness of business, the truth at
The raised degree of risk. Considerable excess is observed
Numbers of the astable bank structures which are carrying out
Crediting mainly unreliable borrowers and operation with
Foreign currency, over financially safe banks. In
The whole there is a growth of number of the bank companies, i.e. The tendency,
Opposite to those which has arisen several years ago under
Influence of a purposeful policy of the Central Bank on liquidation it is inefficient
Working banks. A number of the companies which have faced in business with
Stubborn problems and disappeared from the market, again
Have appeared on him (after reception of additional means) already under
Other names. The Central Bank decision to grant the licence the such
To "double-dealing fellows" is exposed to the sharp criticism. However follows
To consider high profitableness of the given kind of business in the modern
Nigeria. Special research has shown, that as a whole
Profitableness of the capital (before payment of taxes) in bank sector of this
The countries in 1999 reached 45 %, that above, than at successful
Operating banks in the developed countries.
As the newspaper "Financial Times" marks, incomes of the Nigerian
Banks are obviously overestimated at the expense of the big commission fee paid
Clients at withdrawal of deposits and for fulfilment
Export-import transactions. However increase in number of banks, and
Means, cost will inevitably force to reduce competitors
Rendered services.
The certain trouble in the bank environment of Nigeria calls
That circumstance, that extra operations are carried out in dollars
For financing of projects which will ensure incomes
In najrah. The companies-borrowers can appear insolvent in
Case of unexpected depreciation of Nigerian currency.
Unresolved problem there is rather wide fulfilment
Exchange operations with difference use in official and
svobodnorynochnom a rate of national currency concerning dollar.
The Central Bank has withdrawn licences at some banks owing to the such
Illegal activity.
The share market of Nigeria in modern conditions is characterised
Prevalence povyshatelnoj tendencies. In January, 2001
New jump of quotations on the Nigerian share is registered
To stock exchange. Lifting is observed from IV quarter 1999 (first of all under
Influence of a rise in prices on oil and strengthenings internal political
Stability). Increase in monetary weight in circulation and
The State expenditure will promote rise in price of actives
And to increase of incomes of the Nigerian companies. However at growth
Bank interest rates counting on inflation restraint
Securities of the leading companies can fall in the price. Issue
One-year certificates on 60 billion najr, undertaken by the Central Bank in
February of current year for absorption of the superfluous liquid
Means, already promoted transfer of available assets in
The state securities and to decrease in stock quotes,
Traded at Nigerian stock exchange.
The period of increase of a share conjuncture will be replaced by recession under
Influence of reduction of prices on hydrocarbonic raw materials, strengthenings of inflation,
Increases of bank percent and easing najry, however the such
The tendency is looked through only in the long term. As a whole for the flowing
Year an index findovoj stock exchanges, possibly, will raise at least on 30
- 40 %.
Specification on development of economy of Nigeria.
2000 2001
Estimation the Forecast
Gross national product in nominal calculation 41,7 40,1
(Bln. dollars)
Gross national product counting on soul of the population 373 351
(Dollars)
Gain of real gross national product (%) 2,8 3,5
Gain industrial 1,5 2,0
Manufacture (%)
Daily oil recovery (million 2,04 2,15
barr.)
Rate of inflation (%) 1) 6,5 7,5
Gain of monetary weight in 41,6 16,6
The reference (%)
Official currency reserves 9,4 8,9
(Bln. dollars) 2)
The State expenditure (gross national product %) 31,7 31,0
External debt (gross national product %) 2) 73,7 77,8
Commodity export (bln. dollars) 21,4 19,2
Commodity import (bln. dollars) 10,6 12,9
1) Annual growth of consumer prices of the basic goods.
2) On the end of year.
<$>
//* an information Source: BIKI, 5.05.01
//* Reg. Nom. - 1110500120.12-------------------------------------------
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