Economy of Serbia: a status and development prospects.
Economy of Serbia: a status and development prospects.
On March, 14th, 2002 as a result of negotiations of representatives
Serbia, Montenegro and Union republic Yugoslavia (SRJU) was
It is declared the termination of existence SRJU and Union creation
The states of Serbia and Montenegro. The Serbsko-Montenegro commission
Should prepare the constitution of the new state and present
To its parliaments in Belgrad and podgoritse, so that till the end of 2002
They could make corresponding amendments to the constitution
Republics.
According to the project of the new constitution an exit from the Union
One of republics it is possible only after three years. If
Montenegro will undertake a similar step, Serbia automatically becomes
pravopreemnitsej SRJU as the subject of international law. It, in
Particulars, corresponds with the resolution of the UN Security Council 1244,
Regulating now a legal status of Kosovo.
The planned constitutional reforms will not solve a key problem
The union - strengthenings of centrifugal tendencies in the politician and economy,
Event not without influence of external forces. Republican
The ministries duplicate management functions; in circulation are
Independent money resources - new dinar (Serbia) and euro
(Montenegro). The economic potential of the country is distributed
Non-uniformly: 92 % are necessary to Serbia, 8 % - to Montenegro.
After arrival by autumn of 2000, to the power in Belgrad the new
The governments of prime minister Z. Dzhindicha, in Serbia was outlined
Real lifting of economy. "We were many years in a status
Stagnation also we wish to finish in the shortest terms it ", - has declared
The minister of external economic relations of Serbia G.Pitich. Serbia
Counts through 5 - 6 years on joining to the WTO and to 2010 -
On the introduction into EU.
In comparison with other countries with transitive economy Serbia
Has very limited time for realisation of reforms.
However Serbia as the European analysts consider, has one
Advantage, namely: being in a role of the outsider, it has
Possibility not to repeat an error of other countries from the transitive
Economy. The command of the young reformers focused on
The West, led by Z.Dzhindichem, the aim to carry out has laid down
Economic reforms in the country according to principles
Market economy.
Indicators of economy SRJU in 2001
Territory 102173 sq. km
Serbia 88361 sq. km
Montenegro 13812 sq. km
The population of 10,63 million persons
Serbia of 9,98 million
Montenegro of 0,65 million
Population density 103,7 people / sq. km
Gross national product 10,23 bln. dollars
Gross national product per capita 965 dollars
Gross national product growth (real) 5,5 %
Rate of unemployment of 30 %
Rate of inflation of 35 %
Export (2000, Statistics 1723 mln. dollars
SRJU)
Import (2000, Statistics 3711 mln. dollars
SRJU)
Dinar exchange rate 1 euros = 59,0163 dynes.
Source: the International currency fund (IMF).
In 2001 industrial output in Serbia remained on
Level of 2000 (when he has grown on 10,9 %). In conditions
The insufficient liquidity, the limited access to the bank
To credits, structural problems, maloaktivnogo internal demand
Manufacture has not increased in many branches, and in some - even
It was reduced. There was a situation in is a little bit better
Oil refining and chemical branches (in particular, at
Manufacturers of plastic). Dynamically developed also
Manufacture of furniture, home appliances, textile and sewing
Products.
Concern of the Serbian government calls that fact, that
The industry of Serbia in 2000 could not overcome
Consequences of recession in crisis 1999 (on 22,5 %) at least
Half. As a result in 2001 the manufacture volume was almost
On 10 % below level of 1998
The Serbian economists explain it sharp reduction
Investments into economy and loss of competitiveness of the Serbian
The enterprises owing to aggressive actions of the NATO which have called
Destructive consequences for a national economy.
Taking into account the specified above structural and financial problems results
Economic development of the country in 2001 are estimated as a whole
Positively. A gain of gross national product of Serbia it has made 5,5 %, in 2002
It is planned at level of 4 %. Notice, that economy growth in 2001
Has been reached exclusively at the expense of successful development rural
Economy where the manufacture gain has made 23,2 %. In
Manufacturing industry only 6 from 23 branches have improved
The indicators.
The building branch is in deep crisis, deficiency
Foreign trade has reached critical size. Defined
Progress will reach in domestic trade and on transport.
The major result of 2001 is decrease in rates
Inflations to 35 % (in 2000 its gain has made 85,6 %). A course
Dinar its real cost was stabilised, has raised.
For the first time last 10 years the project has been completely executed
The state budget, and also personal savings have increased
The population in foreign and national currency.
In the field of economic policy for 2002 priority
Problems of the government of Serbia are re-structuring
Economy, acceleration of process of privatisation, reform of the bank
Systems, upgrade of an economic infrastructure.
A number of the important laws in the field of privatisation is already accepted,
Investments, the labour right, liberalisation of foreign trade and
Reforms of bank system, are taken measures on their realisation. With
Their purpose the Serbian government counts in 2002 on
Strengthening of macroeconomic stability. Till the end of the flowing
Year the national bank plans to lower growth of inflation to 20 %.
Real growth of wages should make 4 %, i.e.
To correspond to predicted growth of gross national product. A dinar exchange rate in 2002
Also should remain stable. Under the statement of the Minister of Economics
And B.Dzhelicha's finance, the new dinar becomes convertible currency
In Germany, Italy, Greece, Austria and a number of neighbouring countries.
The budget of Serbia for 2002 is confirmed in the sum of 219,8 billion dynes.
(About 3,3 bln. dollars), that almost is twice more than corresponding
Indicator of last year. From them 18 billion dynes. (About 260 million
) it is supposed to direct dollars on re-structuring of economy and
10 billion - on road building. According to the prime minister
Z.Dzhindicha, will be 2002 difficult, as budgetary funds
Are provided for the decision only the urgent
Social and economic problems.
For maintenance of growth of economy the government of Serbia
Has developed "Strategy of industrial development of Serbia till 2010".
Its basic purpose - competitiveness restoration
National production in the world market. For this purpose
Strengthening of specialisation of the industry is provided,
Support eksportoorientirovannyh branches and harmonisation
Development of Serbia with development of neighbouring countries Southeast
Europe.
6 priority sectors of an economy are defined: the information
Technologies, pharmaceutical, chemical and separate sectors
Electronic industry, sphere of services, agriculture and
Manufacture of a foodstuff.
The government of Serbia plans the prompt return for the world
The market of production of metalcutting and textile branches,
Ready-to-wear clothes. Revival derevoobrabatyvajushchej Is supposed
Branches, in particular building of the new enterprises on purpose
Productions derevoobrabotki for export.
As a result of NATO bombardments and absence of the financial
Means the economic infrastructure of Serbia is in decline.
Till 2005 it is supposed to finish its restoration as a whole.
Urgent major repairs requires more than 40 %
Highways and from 60 to 85 % of regional and local motorways,
From 20 to 30 % of bridges and bridge constructions. Urgent upgrade
It is necessary as well for a railway system of Serbia and Montenegro.
The financial help for restoration of an infrastructure of Serbia
Arrives almost exclusively through the European investment
Bank (the total sum will make from 170 million to 200 million euro). In that
Time as many western firms still occupy the waiting
Position, in such branches, as power, water supply and
The telecommunication, already has begun now realisation
Concrete projects. To participation in them have shown interest, in
Particulars, such international concerns, as "Lyonnaise des
Eaux "," Thyssen-Krupp "," Matav "," Siemens "," Alcatel "," Ericsson "
And "Cisco".
In 2001 the government decree passes the new law about
Privatisations. In the law two forms of its carrying out are defined:
Competition (for the large enterprises) and auction (for small and average
The enterprises). Till the end of 2005 in a private property should
To be passed about 7 thousand
The state enterprises. In 2002 it is planned
Privatisation of 70 large enterprises; their majority are finished to
Bankruptcies, but have the important economic value.
The government purpose - to provide inflow of long-term investments
From the foreign companies possessing modern technologies,
The long-term traditions, in the developed research potential and
Own commodity markets.
Start of process of privatisation in Serbia as consider the western
Experts, it is possible to consider successful. In the end of 2001 the government
Declared winners of competition on 70 share holdings of three cement
Factories. In the end of February, 2002 there have passed auctions on sale
The enterprises rezinotehnicheskih products, a foundry,
Glass factory, firm on packing and factory manufacture
Building materials. To the middle of 2002
To the Serbian and foreign investors were offered for purchase of 40 %
Actives of brewing branch and 7 from 15 sugar factories. Earlier,
Than it was expected, the distributive network will be exposed on sale
Petrochemical branch, in deadlines privatisation is planned
The majority of hotels, first of all in the largest cities of Serbia -
Belgrad and Novi Sad.
The first stage of privatisation in Serbia has shown, that this process
Long and rather hard. Many industrial associations
(Holdings) and the enterprises before sale it is necessary
To restructure. Their number includes 45 large state
The enterprises, including automobile factory "Outpost" in
Kragujevac, the mining enterprises in cities the Pine forest and the Surf.
Profitable divisions of the enterprises or associations should
To pass the sanitation, the remained part of manufactures which do not have
Chances to survive, it will be liquidated.
From the end of 2001 in Serbia the new law on work has come into force,
Which has created preconditions for rational, focused on
The market of a policy of the enterprises in the field of employment. The enterprises
Have received much more possibilities on regulation
Number occupied depending on a status of the flowing
Conjuncture. Employers are not obliged to conclude now
The collective labour contract.
Direct foreign investments in the form of inflow of the capital and
Technologies are extremely necessary for revival of the Serbian economy.
The Minister of Economics and B.Dzhelich's finance has expressed hope, that
Foreign investors will get many of 7 thousand the enterprises,
Switched on in the privatisation plan. The government counts already in
2002 to receive incomes of their sale in the sum from 300 million to 500
Mln. dollars, that, however, are obviously not enough for maintenance
Steady economic growth. By estimations of western experts,
For achievement of this purpose in a national economy it is necessary
To invest annually not less than 2 bln. dollars of the private
Capital investments.
According to accepted in Serbia in January, 2002 the law about
Foreign investments the foreign companies have now
The unlimited right to property acquisition; this law
The equal rights domestic and foreign are defined also
The enterprises.
Experts from German association "Ost - und
Mitteleuropa-Verein e V. "(" OMV ") recommend to the German
To investors to enter the Serbian market gradually and thus
To put means mainly in the operating enterprises,
Located in the largest cities of Serbia - Belgrad, Novi Sad and
Nish.
There were considerable changes in bank system of the country.
In 2001 the president of national bank of Serbia M.Dinkich declared
19 banks of the country insolvent, and others 18 have been united with
Stable in the financial plan competitive structures. This
The step was a compulsory measure, as their cumulative debt to the beginning
2001 made 4,81 bln. dollars
In January, 2002 four leading banks of the country - "Beogradska
Bank "," Beobanka "," JUgobanka "and" Investbank "- have been declared
Insolvent after it became clear, that their rescue
It is impossible. This decision has shown, that the government has refused from
Former methods of improvement of bank system. However closing
The specified banks had also serious negative consequences. So,
Have lost workplaces of 8,5 thousand employees. Heavy losses have incurred
Foreign creditors who through these banks have given
Credits to the Yugoslavian firms without a state guarantee for the sum
Almost 1,8 billion euro.
Owing to limitation of home market the country develops
Trade and economic cooperation first of all on the regional
Level. It has agreements on free trade with all
The former republics SFRJU, and also with Romania, Bulgaria,
Hungary and Moldova.
Especially close economic relations recently
Have developed with Slovenia, first of all, in sphere melkooptovoj
Trade and building.
The author: PB.
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//* an information Source: BIKI, 8.08.02
//* Reg. Nom. - 1120800129.09-------------------------------------------
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