Montenegro - In search of optimum model economic
Montenegro - In search of optimum model economic
Developments.
The basic foreign policy and external economic problem
The governments of Montenegro its maintenance of the prompt is
Introductions into EU. The European Union is ready to switch on Serbia and Montenegro
(So the country, arisen is called as spring of current year on
Place SR of Yugoslavia) in the list of the states entering as it should be
Sequences in EU, under condition of working out by both republics
Plan of action on creation of the general for them the market. Such requirement
Montenegro considers as the certificate of the incessant
Pressure from the European Union. At the same time the president of Serbia and
Montenegro V.Koshtunitsa considers, that to two republics "it is given still
One chance for strengthening and unification of the economic
Spaces "within the limits of the new state.
By EU calculations, Serbia and Montenegro should have the general
The president, parliament and army. The economic policy remains
Prerogative of each of republics, but it should be guaranteed
Free movement of the goods, the capital and citizens. EU insists
In the uniform serbsko-Montenegro market with cancellation of all import
Duties on the goods each other, an establishment of identical duties on
The goods imported from the outside, equalising of taxes to cigarettes,
Carrying out of a uniform commercial policy. EU is ready to increase
The financial help in 2003 on 30 % - to 255 million euro, and it
Granting does not co-ordinate with performance of the above-stated
Requirements. The director of the Balkan program of the International group on
To crisis situations (is based in Bruxelles) considers, that
Serbia, Montenegro do not wish to hurry with reintegratsiej the
Economy. Montenegro is afraid of state creation, though and not
Being "rigid" federation, but bearing a strong resemblance to the were
Yugoslavia with the decision-making centre in Belgrad. Montenegro can
To refuse performance of already reached arrangements from EU,
If it will force to increase of import duties to level,
Taking place in Serbia, and to use as the basic
Dinar currencies, instead of euro.
At the present stage Montenegro, (along with Macedonia the were
The least developed part SFRJU) strongly depends on the help of EU and the USA
In overcomings of imbalance of the budget and foreign trade. In
Carrying out time the western countries of a course on elimination from the power
Milosevic Chernogorija received large means (in recalculation on
Euro about 300 million a year) for financing of projects and in a kind
The technical help. The given sums were used for
Buildings of new motorways, carrying out of reforms in judicial,
Law-enforcement and bank systems.
At the expense of the western help the relative was supported
Stability in economy preconditions for lifting also were created,
Especially in building and tourism sphere. Now
The republic management realises, that the introduction into EU becomes
Possible only at preservation of the uniform state with Serbia. But
In case of rendering of pressure upon Montenegro from the Serbian
The authorities for the purpose of maintenance of harmonisation of economic policy
Two republics and use as a basis of Serbian model,
Instead of models of EU preservation of the uniform state, becomes
The problematic.
Still in recent times representatives of EU and the Serbian authorities
Use as the official achieved from Montenegro
Currencies of dinar and introduction of the high excises similar existing in
Serbia. However, as the leading banker of Montenegro of L believes.
Krgovich, for the small country, which incomes appreciably
Are formed at the expense of foreign tourism and export of aluminium,
It is more preferable to have low import duties and in quality
The basic currency - euro which provides the big transparency
Financial operations. Introduction of own currency in this case
Risky.
The March agreement on creation nefederativnogo
Serbia and Montenegro has not cleared up the decision of many
Interrepublican problems, in particular the currency. Since January, 1st
Montenegro de fakto became 13th participant of an eurozone, whereas in
Serbia the national currency - dinar is saved. The Central Bank of Serbia
Has active influence on formation of its course. On fault
Allied management and because of adverse external conditions in
SRJU throughout last 10 years of its existence it was observed
The hyperinflation, deposits in HARD CURRENCY were used not for the designated purpose,
Means of investors were in essence squandered.
Technically transition of Montenegro from the DM which had
Circulation as parallel currency, for euro has passed without
Special complexities. For an exchange it has been shown more than 900 million
Him. M. instead of expected 250 - 300 million Montenegro population
Has not got used to trust the authorities and official bank system and
Therefore prefers to store savings in house HARD CURRENCY, abroad
Or to put available means in the real estate. Money
Are scrolled in building and small business, which especially
It is active in capital and on coast, and such monetary streams not
Find reflexions in the official financial reporting.
From the beginning of year only 1/3 obmenennyh euro has arrived on
Depositary bills in commercial banks. It was authorised to the population
To exchange to 10 thousand him. M. counting on one person.
Experts in bank system believe, that partially means for
Exchange arrived from the next republics and the countries. Negative
Reduction became the phenomenon for bank system of Montenegro
Contributions from the end of April, 2002 because of low degree of trust with
The population parties.
Transition to euro has called strengthening of inflation which makes
20 - 25 % instead of expected 17 %. The sharp rise in prices is registered
At restaurants, bars and hotels. Such tendency is partly connected
With actions of small operators which, for example, began to raise
Payment in 1 euro there where last year quotations in stamps were in
Two times more low.
The Montenegro authorities have spent sanitation of bank system.
Some problem state banks have been closed, and
Instead of them the bank, completely being are opened new, including
In the foreign property. Gradually position in the bank
Sector of Montenegro began to change for the better, in particular
At the expense of development of system of microcrediting, which
It is carried out through "Opportunity Bank", based by the organisation
"Microcredit Montenegro". Its modern problems it is not enough than
Differ from taking place at other participants of the bank
Business. Transition "Micrп?credit Montenegro" (a credit portfolio
It is estimated in 4 million
Euro; the number of active clients comes nearer to 4,3 thousand) in
Category of high-grade banks becomes complicated among other the low
The depositary rates offered investors (6 % on the annual
To the fixed deposits that is obviously not enough in conditions when
The rate of inflation has exceeded, by data for last year, 23 %; however
It is better, than full absence of percent to which doom
Itself the citizens storing savings at home).
The initial capital "Opport-unity Bank" made 3 million
Euro. By the end of 2002 doubling of this size is expected. Difficulties
Formation are overcome by means of foreign experts, in
Particulars having an operational experience in such bank companies, as
"Natwest" and "HSBC". "Miя rocredit Montenegro" has managed to get
Reputation of the reliable financial organisation as in the rich south, and
In poor cities in the north.
Within three years since time of the basis "Microcredit
Montenegro "has served 10 thousand clients. Average volume
Crediting has made 2,5 thousand euro for average term less than 12
Months.
The majority of borrowers was necessary on a share of owners trading
Tents and groups of the small businessmen buying the equipment.
At a stage of transformation into high-grade commercial bank
"Opportunity Bank" has started to serve averages in the sizes
The enterprises. Current year granting cases have become frequent
Credits for the maximum sum of 10 thousand euro. In 2003 it is expected
Growth of operations with use of payment cards.
As a whole the bank system of Montenegro has got lines,
Distinguishing it from bank system of other former Yugoslavian
Republics. If, for example, Slovenia as model has chosen
Swiss, aspiring to turn in some kind of "the Balkan
Switzerland "Montenegro in the given sphere was guided on
Realisation of more modest problems, and first of all on development
Microcrediting systems.
Insufficient accumulation of own financial assets in
To republic partly it should be compensated for the bill of the active
Capital attraction from abroad. Specially created groups
Highly skilled experts at financial support of EU and
The USA have developed projects of the laws, called to guarantee the right
Foreign investors and minoritarnyh holders of actions.
Montenegro management on economic re-structuring and
To foreign investments has headed for attraction of the foreign
The capital in building of several infrastructural objects,
And it is frequent rather expensive. For example, HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION erection
Capacity 160 MVt in Komarnitse than 200 mln. dollars will demand more and
312 mln. dollars are necessary for a construction of the cascade from 4 HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATIONS in
Pool of river Moracha. The most expensive hydropower
The project (cost 485 mln. dollars) become the initiative on
To potential use (it is estimated in 600 MVt) the rivers Container and
Moracha, providing building of a dam and HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION
"Kostanitsa". Thus, only for water-power engineering development
Attraction approximately 1 bln. dollars This sum is required
Will essentially increase at the account of the means necessary for
Realisations of projects of a construction of tunnels, suspension bridges,
Roundabout motorways near to large settlements and objects
On sale and processing of vegetables and fruit.
Similar plans have been developed even in days of existence
SFRJU. They were not reconsidered yet (as it is saved
Orientation to the model of development providing the all-round
Use of available natural resources), however terms
Realisation of separate projects should undergo to changes.
For example, in the conditions of decline of the heavy industry of Montenegro
Hardly the investment of large means is actual in
Electric power industry as the current consumption is appreciable
It was reduced. Half of operating capacities in branch serves
The aluminium combine, which future in many respects depends from
Attraction of the strategic investor from abroad for
Upgrades of the industrial equipment bought 30 more
Years back. However foreign experts believe, that in the future
Planning should not be based on idea about necessity
Supports of the old enterprises of the heavy industry built
In days of board Tito. In their opinion, the priority should be given
To development of the new flexible manufactures concentrated
Mainly at the small and average enterprises. Special attention
It is supposed to give to development of tourism, light industry and
To processing of agricultural raw materials.
The hotel economy is subject to essential upgrade
Montenegro. Its management will not concentrate in hands
Old shots, and should pass to foreign investors,
For example to the owner of a network of hotels to Slovene firm "HIT",
Which has bought recently for 4,5 million euro hotel "Maestral" in
Milochere about an island
Shine-stefan. "HIT" was obliged to enclose 50 million euro in finishing
Hotel complex to level of 5-stars object of data
Profile. Upgrade of a hotel economy of an island Is planned
Shine-stefan with participation of the British firm "Rocco Forte" and
Austrian group "Rogner".
Now Montenegro is engaged in searches of the foreign
Investors for the telecommunication company "Montenegro
Telekom ", oil group" Jugopetrol Kotor "(last requires
In means for continuation of searches of deposits of the hydrocarbonic
Raw materials on a shelf and coast of Adriactic Sea).
However old branches of Montenegro economy also require in
Inflow of the foreign capital. An industry share in formation
Gross national product reaches considerable size - 27 % (21, 18, 13, 7, 6 and 8 %
Gross national product is necessary accordingly on trade, agriculture,
Transport, tourism, building and other branches). It is saved
Strong dependence on the aluminium industry, which
Provides approximately 46 % of gross national product created in industrial sphere,
And 90 % of volume of commodity export also are based on use
Deposits of high-quality red bauxites and
Hydroenergy potential (while it is mastered in the insufficient
Degrees). Last year the aluminium combine has lowered the operational
Costs according to falling of the world prices for aluminium.
Presence of new capacities on its manufacture by anode way
(In the total cost 5 mln. dollars) have helped such decrease, and also
To the planned increase in melt from 108 thousand t in 2001 to 115
Thousand current year. However the enterprise requires the help
The strategic investor, as the basic part of capacities obviously
Obsolete, and the re-structured debt makes the considerable
Size - 157 mln. dollars On formation of large debts
The big influence renders growth of tariffs for the electric power and
Transport.
The Montenegro authorities managed to find the investor for less
The significant enterprise for republican economy: in 1997
Belgian group "Interbrew" for 25 million him. M. has got 61 %
Brewery actions in Nikshiche. An investment of 15 million more
Has allowed to finish individual share of the Belgian party to 72 %.
Allocation of the additional sum of 25 million him. M. has given the chance
To increase power capacities, to get industrial and
The packing equipment to improve snabzhenchesko-marketing
Activity of the specified enterprise.
Despite high level of wages and good conditions
Work, the factory has appeared closed in May of current year (i.e. In
The beginning of a new tourist season, the most perspective for
The industries slaboalkogolnyh and soft drinks) because of
The strike which have begun on him. Trade unions have demanded increase
Average wages to 550 euros, whereas the foreign
Owners offered only 400 euros (for comparison: in 2001 on
To all republic its level averaged 125 euros).
Negative influence has rendered also that circumstance, that minoritarnye
The shareholders receiving dividends, have no possibility to influence on
Operation of business.
Thanks to large investments into re-equipment of the enterprise,
Retraining of personnel, training and youth employment, and also high
To quality of production the factory has assigned to itself of 10 % of the local market. In
2000 the profit has increased to more than 9 million him. M. In the such
Conditions interest to enterprise acquisition has appeared at
Montenegro businessmen. However the government considers, that
Infringement it is right the largest foreign investor can negatively
To affect the general investment climate in republic. In a course
The treasury lost strikes about 100 thousand euro a day because of
Short-receptions of taxes. One more negative consequence
The developed position there were illicit deliveries of beer from
Serbia and from abroad.
In model of economic development of Montenegro an appreciable place
It is taken away one more branch - ship-repair. Unlike
Croatia where the big relative density has shipbuilding, in
Montenegro possibilities for this capital-intensive branch
The industries ogranichenny. However ship-repair operations have
Doubtless potential for growth. The big prospects for
Businesses in this area open in connection with
Privatisation of sea shipyard in Biela. As the newspaper informs
"Financial Times", on sale 62 %-s' share holding will be exposed.
The rest has already carried over the personnel of shipyard and
Citizens of Montenegro. To privatisation of the given object special interest
Have shown the companies from Italy, Greece and the USA. The new owner becomes
The proprietor of the dry dock largest in region capable
To accept vessels deadweight of 120 thousand t. Now shipyard
Serves vessels basically from the European Union countries. Till now it
The enterprise did without attraction of the foreign capital,
However inflation and other factors have considerably worsened the financial
The shipyard position which basic advantage till now were
Low quotations on ship-repair jobs. Now shipyard
Concedes in this respect to the similar enterprises in Romania,
Bulgaria, in Ukraine. Shipyard fee in Biela is made
In dollars. An US dollar exchange rate recently a little
Has decreased, one - to this advantage is brought to nothing by that
Circumstance, that inflation in Montenegro using in
Quality of currency of euro, grew faster, than the dollar weakened.
In 2001 on shipyard in Biela repair work is made on
62 courts for a total sum 14 mln. dollars that it is possible to estimate as
Doubtless progress against a low indicator for 1999 - 4
Mln. dollars (destabilization of economy of Yugoslavia has affected
Owing to military actions in Kosovo and NATO bombardments;
These events frighten off till now some potential
Clients, though territory of Montenegro outright almost
Has suffered). Decomposition SRJU has even more complicated shipyard job.
Now the steel is delivered not from Serbia, and from Macedonia
And from Ukraine.
Instead of use of port the Bar for transportation of paints from
The Great Britain their delivery is carried out now by motor transport,
Which follows along the Croatian coast from Slovene port
Koper. Similar far from optimum transport the scheme will be
To take place until a situation in region completely not
It is stabilised.
Placing of the considered enterprise in the Kotorsky bay
Creates some difficulties for development of tourism which should
To receive in the given area the further development. However, in opinion
Experts-ecologists, both branches can exist nearby at
Timely carrying out of the thought over nature protection actions.
In sphere of services of Montenegro the doubtless leader is
Tourist business. Tourism seaside, mountain develops,
Lake and some other types. Montenegro coast
Differs good safety of natural objects thanking
To mountainous relief and relative disconnexion from
Those areas of the former Yugoslavia in which took place ecologically
Unsafe building of economic objects and fighting
Actions.
In June of current year the parliament of Montenegro has approved 20-year-old
The plan for development of tourism made with assistance of German and
The American experts. Its overall objective consists in
Prevention of excessive loading at the coast, similar to those,
Which has led to decline of some resort zones in Spain and
Turkey. Such threat could arise in expired year and in
Montenegro, in particular because of intensive building
Hotels, summer residences, the public catering establishments, developed
Thanks to the large investments which have been carried out by businessmen and
Local population in a zone, where sphere of the possible application
The capital rather ogranichenna.
According to the governmental estimations, in season peak (July -
August) to tourists are accessible to 200 thousand kojko-places, from which
Only 3,2 thousand respond rigid western standards.
Essential distinction of these two indicators is not serious
Problem as while the majority of visitors is presented by persons with
The low incomes which have arrived from Serbia, Albania, Kosovo,
Bosnia, and also traditional tourists from Czechia and Slovakia, and with
Recent time - from Ukraine and from Russia.
(The termination in following number).
The author: OG.
<$>
//* an information Source: BIKI, 10.08.02
//* Reg. Nom. - 1120800183.01-------------------------------------------
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