Prospects of development of separate branches of economy of the USA.
Prospects of development of separate branches of economy of the USA.
"Business Week" has published the forecast of development of the cores
Branches of economy of the USA in 1998 According to it rates
Gain of the American economy in 1998 will be slowed down to 2 - 3 %
Against 3,7 % in 1997 that will lower risk of substantial increase
Inflations, however it will negatively be reflected in profits American
The companies. Rates of their gain, under the forecast "Business Week",
Will average 3,1 % on one action in comparison with 9,13 % in
1997
The strongest negative factor which will affect
On development of the American economy in 1998, will be external
Trade. Consequences of financial crisis in Asia will be
To contain economic growth in the countries of this region, that
The considerable part will lead to decrease in them of demand for import,
Which arrives from the USA. On the American export negatively
The dollar rate increase which will be will be reflected also
To stimulate import growth. The further increase in deficiency
The foreign trade balance will brake economic development of the USA.
Owing to a low rate of inflation
The American companies cannot increase the
Profits at the expense of increase of the prices.
In connection with delay of rates of a gain of employment the wage
The payment will not raise considerably. Interest rates
Thanks to a low rate of inflation will not grow.
According to the forecast "Business Week, in the best position in
1998 there will be companies making program
Maintenance, the pharmaceutical companies, the firms rendering
Business services, transport firms, and also engaged
Operations with the real estate. Adverse as expect,
The come year will be for insurance the companies, firms,
Rendering medical services, the enterprises of the retail
Trade, and also for the companies operating in the hotel
Business, and the firms connected with mass media.
The American manufacturers of the software, as
Expect, in 1998 will increase a sales volume of production on
The world market on 12,8 % - to 133 bln. dollars
"Microsoft", despite negative influence of consequences
The Asian crisis (a sales volume of production of this company in
Asia are averaged by 1 bln. dollars in a year) as believe,
In the come YEAR will raise the profit on 15 % - to 4,7 billion
Dollars, and sales volume - on 9 %. In the middle of the flowing
Year "Microsoft" namerena to enter the new program -
"Windows-98", that will promote demand increase on
Services of firms in software manufacture.
Reorganisation of all computer systems with approach 2000,
Demanding participation of the companies which are letting out the program
Maintenance, also will lead to growth of their profits.
The firms making computers and semiconductors, in 1998
Will test also influence of consequences of the financial
Crisis in Asia. So, sales of the American computers in
Japan, according to the forecast, will increase only on 5 % against 15 %,
Assumed earlier. Rates of a gain of profit on sales
The American semiconductors in Asia about 12 %, though will be slowed down
Sales volume of this production the companies of the USA in the world market in
Whole as expect, will increase on 17 % against 6 % in 1997 and
Reductions on 9 % in 1996
Profit of the American companies making computers, in
Current year, under the forecast, considerably will increase (despite
Reduction of export to Asia) thanks to growth on 45 % of sales on
Home market of rather cheap personal
Computers.
Though rates of a gain of manufacture of computers and
Semiconductors in 1998 will be lower, than
It was predicted earlier, they almost will exceed three times
Rates of development of any other branch of the American economy.
Stimulus to expansion of export of production of the computer companies
The USA there will be a proceeding reduction of prices on it. In 1998 g on
To the forecast "Business Week", a sales volume of computers
The American manufacture in the world market will reach 90 million
Unit, that on 14 % more than in 1997
In telecommunication branch of economy of the USA it will be active
To go the process of consolidation caused by an aggravation
Competitive struggle between the companies operating in it. On
To opinion of heads of the majority of telecommunication firms,
Merge to larger or acquisition of the small companies -
Unique way to win this struggle.
Competition growth will put pressure upon the prices upon services,
Rendered by the telecommunication companies. As a result
Incomes of the last of telephone conversations in the country, as
Expect, will decrease - about 92,6 bln. dollars in 1997 to a little
92,3 billion in 1998, though from long-distance negotiations they
Will increase on 9 %-to 101,8 bln. dollars
In 1998, under the forecast "Business Week", wider
Application will be received by new ways of an information transfer, which
Will successfully compete to the old. So, the company "Qwest
Communications International "namerena this year
To suggest the clients to pass the information to the long
Distances with the help "Internet" that will manage it only in
7,6 ts. (Almost on 50 % is cheaper, than a phone conversation with
The subscriber who is on the same distance). According to
To forecasts, use by the telecommunication companies of a network
"Internet" in 1998 will bring in their the income at a rate of 1 billion
Dollars which by 2001 will reach 3,5 billion
The rating of the television companies of the USA in 1998 will be
To continue to decrease. Current year, under forecasts, only 58 %
Americans against 60 % in 1997 will regularly look
The TV. A situation at three largest broadcasting companies of the USA ("AVS",
"CBS" and "NBC") is even worse: their audience as expect, will decrease
From 91 % of the general number of the American televiewers in 1980 to
Less than 50 % in 1998 On diversifikatsiju the American firms on
Foreign markets consequences financial will negatively affect
Crisis to Asia, and also increase in translation of local transfers
The European television companies.
At the same time the American broadcasting companies as expect,
Will increase incomes of advertising in 1998 by 5,5 %-to 14 billion
Dollars
avtomobilestroitelnye the companies of the USA in 1998, it agree
To forecasts, will continue to reduce the prices for production.
In the come year their reduction on the average on 2 % is expected. In
1997 in connection with a low rate of inflation and increase of incomes
The population in the USA there was a decrease in the real price on
Cars: if in 1996 of the average American
The family needed to work 26,4 weeks that
To buy a motor vehicle, in 1997 25,6 weeks.
Financial crisis in Asia, according to experts "Business
Week ", will not render essential negative influence on
The largest avtomobilestroitelnye the companies of the USA. It is expected, that
Firm "Ford" profit in 1998 will decrease only on 5 % - to 6,45
The bln. dollars "General Motors", under forecasts, will increase the
Profit on 4,8 % - to 5,85 bln. dollars of Business at the company
"Chrysler" in the come year as experts believe, also
Will improve: the profit will increase on 13,6 % - to 3,15 bln. dollars
Thanks to undertaken by the new president of firm T.
Stolkempom to measures on decrease in expenses for working out of the new
Models and to improvement of quality of cars let out by them.
The power of the USA will test negative influence
Consequences of financial crisis in Asia, and also further
Reduction of prices on production. As a result of the Asian
Crisis demand for oil in the world market as expect,
Will increase in 1998 only on 2,3 % against 2,9%п?п?пЁп? a gain in
1997
It is expected, that profit of the power companies of the USA in 1998
Will increase only on 5 % against 10 %-s' gains in 1997 In
The least favourable position there will be 9 the largest oil
The companies, which profit after 9 %-s' growth in 1997 in
Current year will decrease on 2 %. Still high rates
Manufacture of the oil-extracting companies will extend in
Communications with a growing demand for new sources of oil, and also
The firms serving the power companies.
Incomes of the companies operating in aerospace branch
The industries of the USA, under forecasts, in 1998 will increase in
Average on 11,5 % - to 144,5 bln. dollars against 129,6 billion in
1997 as Stimulus to it expected growth of export will serve
Civil planes with 2092 last year to 2284 in 1998,
And also increase in sales of the aerospace equipment and
Electronics.
The situation and in the companies making will start to improve
Military planes. The state expenses for research and development in this
Areas should increase about 81 bln. dollars in 1997 fin. To 82
Billion in 1998 fin.
Position in agricultural sector of the USA will be
To remain favorable. The main stimulus to its growth becomes
The further expansion of export on which share it is necessary
More than 20 % of incomes of the American farmers.
Negative influence on agricultural export of the USA
Can render consequences of financial crisis in Asia.
Reduction of export of beef, considerable part is expected
Which arrived in the Asian countries.
Current year, experts "Business Week" consider, will be
Successful for the pharmaceutical companies of the USA. A gain
Manufactures of 10 largest American firms operating in
This area, in 1998, under the forecast, will make 12 % against 8 % in
1997 the Large companies will expand cooperation with
Small firms.
Expenses on advertising of pharmaceutical production will increase
Almost twice - to 1 bln. dollars Will proceed
Increase of the prices for these goods. (In III quarter 1997 they
Have increased by 2,9 % in comparison with the similar period 1996
) Nevertheless the sales volume will grow also, basically for
The introduction bill in manufacture of new medical products.
In public health services of the USA there will be a process
Consolidations of the small companies. Association overall objectives -
Decrease in expenses and labour productivity increase.
Competitive struggle between the separate medical will become aggravated
Establishments. In the basic WAY of increase
To competitiveness there is a decrease tsep on medical
Services.
The volume of retail trade will continue to grow, but more
Low rates, than earlier. Under the forecast of the Ministry of Trade
The USA, the next five years they will average 2 % a year
Against 4 % in 1997 competitive struggle Will become aggravated
The American enterprises of retail trade with clubs,
Theatres, travelling agency. Restaurants which can
To involve available assets of potential buyers.
The strong contender to the enterprises of retail trade became
The bench market: in connection with boom tested by it has raised
Interest of private persons to capital investments in the action.
Positive role proceeding decrease will play
Unemployments which increases number of the potential
Buyers. The come year will be successful for American
The shops trading in luxury goods, so, the company
"Tiffany" namerena to expand a network of the shops for the bill
Opening in 1998 of branches in Denver, Seattle and Las Vegas.
The sales volume through "Internet" will grow Still.
Goods turnover of the shops trading at a discount will increase.
In 1998 the situation as a whole will be favorable on
Transport of the USA. Growth of profit of airlines will proceed. In 1997
Their profit has reached record 4,5 bln. dollars In the come
To year rates of its gain will average 5 %. Loading on
Airlines in 1998 as expect, will increase by 3,5 %.
Considerably position in the American railway will improve
The companies, especially in western which in 1997 it is active
Have joined in merge and acquisition process. According to
To forecasts, net profit of seven largest railway
The companies of the USA in 1998 will increase on 20 % to 4,8 bln. dollars,
Incomes - on 5 % - to 34,7 bln. dollars
In system of trade in a foodstuff recently
The role of supermarkets has decreased: if earlier on their share
It was necessary more than 2/3 sales of foodstuff in the USA, in
Last year this indicator was equal only 50 %. In connection with
Reduction of a free time the potential
Buyers have switched the attention on
Numerous restaurants and the cafe, which number it is constant
Grows.
The important factor stimulating increase
Competitiveness of the American supermarkets, steels
Departments created in them on sale of a ready foodstuff.
In 1998, under forecasts, sales in these departments will increase on
7 % while restaurants and cafe will increase volume of the rendered
Them of services only on 2 %. In the main way of expansion of activity
Restaurants and the cafe in the come year will remain
Consolidation. Within last two years in this sphere
Has occurred more than 300 merge and acquisitions.
Position in hotel business of the USA in 1998 a little
Will worsen. A great demand and insufficient quantity of the new
Hotels promoted increase of cost of hotel rooms
On the average on 12,7 % (to 74,50 dollars a day), that has increased
Profit of the American hotels in 1997 on 17 % - to 14,6 billion
The dollars However financial crisis in Asia have undermined growth
Consumer demand and in the end of last year employment
Hotel rooms for the first time for current decade has decreased with
65,1 to 64,5 %. In 1998 its further reduction is expected.
Will negatively affect a state of affairs in hotel business
The USA and sharp expansion of building of new hotels. In
Current year their number, according to forecasts, will increase on 3,4 %,
While demand will increase only by 2,6 %.
Stably high rates of development of economy of the USA
Promoted increase of demand for business services. Rapid growth
Numbers of merges and the acquisitions, mentioned in 1997 almost all
Branches of the American industry, also has led to increase
Requirements for these services. According to forecasts, rates of a gain
Sectors of business services of the USA in 1998 will average 7,5 %.
Many companies operating in this sector as expect,
It is reached even more impressing results. So, by an estimation
Heads of large publicity agents of the USA, in 1998 they can
To expand the business on 15 %.
Positive role in development of sector of business services in
Current year will play and spent in many branches
The American economy reorganisation. A situation in the companies,
Rendering engineering and architectural services, in 1998, on
To the forecast can worsen, as financial crisis in Asia
Has led to reduction of number of the projects which are carried out on century it
Region.
Incomes (without a deduction of taxes) the American firms operating
In the share market, in 1997 have reached 12 bln. dollars against
11,3 billion in 1996 But 1998 as believe, any more will not be
Such successful, as last. Expected decrease in profits
Corporations it will negatively be reflected in a status of the share market of the USA:
Pas incomes one action, according to forecasts, will decrease from 913 % in
1997 to 3,12 % in 1998 of the Consequence of financial crisis in
Asia become the factor constraining expansion of business
The American companies which are engaged in operations with the valuable
Papers, in this perspective region.
At the same time proceeding economic lifting in the country,
Rapid growth of number of merges and acquisitions in many branches
The American industry will favorably affect a situation
In the share market of the USA.
The major factors defining in 1998 position in
The American insurance companies, will be an aggravation
Competitive struggle from banks, decrease in profit and
Proceeding process of consolidation. Incomes (without a deduction
Taxes) insurance firms in 1998, under the forecast, will decrease to
26,3 bln. dollars against 35,5 billion in 1997, the award will increase
On 3,5 % (3,6 %. In 1997).
Insurers of cars will be in some best
Position though and at them growth of awards will be slowed down.
The bank sector of economy of the USA will test the negative
Influence of consequences of financial crisis in Asia, which
It will be expressed first of all that the clients of the Banks who have developed
In South East Asia, the loans cannot extinguish business.
The situation will become complicated reduction of volume of the commercial
Loans and low incomes of long-term loans. According to
To forecasts, growth of commercial loans will be slowed down with 9 - 10 % in
1997 to 7-8 % in 1998 the Gain of incomes on one action,
As expect, will make 10 % against 12 % in 1997
Process widely developed in last year
Consolidations of banks current year will proceed, though many
Experts express doubt concerning increase
Efficiency of activity of recently created bank
Giants. One of the most considerable. The negative
Consequences of merge of banks, they consider, closing is
Many of their branches and dismissal of employees.
Low interest rates, growth of number occupied and increase
Consumer demand will make 1998 favorable for
The American companies which are engaged in the real estate.
Building of buildings under offices will extend: in 1998 its rates
Gain as expect, will make 10 % that is most
High indicator since 1989 However sales of houses on one
Family in 1998, under the forecast of National association of realtors
The USA will decrease to 4,11 million against 4,19 million in 1997
Building of new houses also will a little be slowed down: in the flowing
To year as expect, it will be constructed 1,39 million houses, at that time
As in 1997 this indicator was equal to 1,46 million
//* an information Source: BIKI, 10.02.98
//* Reg. Nom. - 1080200239.01-------------------------------------------
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