Mexico an economy-status.
Mexico an economy-status.
In 1997 the heaviest stage economic and
The financial crisis worried by Mexico in the previous
Two years, have been passed, and in a national economy lifting was observed.
High rates, gross national product grew in many industries
The manufacture volume has essentially increased, the internal has grown
Consumption, inflation almost has twice decreased. In the annual
The report of IMF Mexico along with Brazil and Chile is carried to number
The countries with a favorable investment climate.
At the same time in economy of Mexico the defined are saved
Problems. Development of its economy last year was under
Negative influence of such factors, as high
The interest rate in the Mexican financial market, overestimated
In relation to dollar the peso course, advancing rates of growth
Import, a considerable internal and external debt. In II
Half-year 1997 there were additional negative factors,
In particular financial crisis in South East Asia and falling
The world prices for oil.
1997 was characterised high, and in some spheres
Record rates of development of the Mexican economy. In a basis
This tendency, according to many researchers, the course lays on
Creation of the open economy, begun by the country in 90th years ^
Participation in the North American zone of free trade
("NAFTA"), the policy of privatisation spent by the government and
The economy re-structurings, provided to the advanced branches
Manufacturing industry primary development. In
1997 of gross national product as a whole has increased by 7 % (it is the highest
Result for last 16 years), and in recalculation on soul
The population - on 5,2 %. Among the countries of Latin America this
The indicator represents high enough result:
Mexico was outstripped only by Argentina (6,6 %) and Uruguay (6,1 %).
Rates of an inflationary rise in prices have decreased to 15,7 %.
Gain of direct foreign investments in comparison with 1996
Has made 46 %, they have reached 12 bln. dollars that is
The highest indicator for last 5 years. To Mexico
It is necessary almost third of foreign capital investments in the countries
Latin America and Caribbean basin (44 bln. dollars).
The Mexican currency reserves last year have increased on 10
Bln. dollars and on the end of December were estimated in 28,0 billion
Foreign actives were estimated in 19,8 bln. dollars
In 45 from 57 industries lifting was observed, at
It in 12 of them rates of development have appeared above indicators
1994 Among them - electronics, black and colour
Metallurgy, motor industry. Manufacture volume in
The industries as a whole has increased by 9,3 % (in the extracting
The industries on 4,3 % and in processing - on 9,8 %), in
Building - on 10,2 %, in elektro - water-and gas supply -
On 5,8 %. Rates of a gain in sector of services have made 6,8 %, in that
Number on section "trade, restaurants, hotels" 9,9 %. Volume
Transport and communication services has grown on 9,5 % and financial services - on
9,5 %. The Agriculture was still characterised by the low
Rates of development - 1,4 %.
Feature of economy of Mexico in 1997 was change
The basic tendencies observed last two years:
Export has ceased to be the most dynamical factor of development
And from II half-year advancing development was observed
The import, led to that positive balance of the trading
Balance it was reduced in 10 times - about 6,5 bln. dollars in 1996 to
0,6 billion a year later. In these conditions of the most typical
High rates of a gain personal became line of development
Consumption that has affected an index of inflation and
Simultaneously stimulated growth of investments.
Financial crisis in Southeast Asia, despite efforts
The central bank of Mexico, has led fast enough
To falling of a course of peso in relation to dollar. One more
The inflationary factor was declared in December 14 %-s'
Wages increase.
Constraining moment was growth of physical volume
Import. Increase of a competition of the cheap import goods
Has forced national manufacturers to refrain from the sharp
Increases of the prices for production. In the same direction
The policy of reduction of the State expenditure operated also,
First of all in the area of financing of projects oil and gas
Corporation "п п я п я " and the Federal commission on the electric power.
Mexico is among the countries with developed the oil
The industry. On stocks of oil the country costs on 6th place in
The world, on extraction volume - on 4th. Oil stocks are defined in
43 billion barr. Oil and gas deposits belong
To the state, the right to their working out, and also oil refining
Both gas and manufacture of base products of petrochemistry is passed
The state oil company "Petroleos Mexicanos"
("п п mex"). On the sizes of actives (37,8 bln. dollars) "Reteh"
Is on 5th place after such world giants, as
"Royal/Dutch Shell", "Exxon", "British Petroleum" and "ENI". On
To the size of annual incomes (28 mln. dollars) "Reteh" occupies
10 place among the oil companies of the world. In 1997 the daily
The oil recovery has made 3024 thousand barr., that on 5,8 % exceeds
Indicator of 1996
On stocks of natural gas Mexico is on one of
The first places in the world - 68413 billion cubic foot. However level
Extraction does not satisfy increasing requirements of economy, and
The country imports natural gas in considerable volumes from
The USA. For 9 months 1997 extraction of natural gas has made
4433 million cubic foot. In day (on 5,7 % above, than in 1996), at
It import was equaled 270 million cubic foot. In day (almost in 8 times
Above, than in 1992). Now on a share of the natural
Gas 35 % of power balance of the country are necessary, to oil -
50 %. One of strategic problems of development of economy of Mexico
Change of structure of balance in favour of gas is. On
To calculations of experts, in the near future it is required
To invest in the gas industry more than 10 billion dollars
In the end of 1997 there was a tendency to decrease in the world prices
On oil. As a result the quotation of the Mexican mix has decreased
About 16,27 dollars for barr. In August of last year to 12 dollars in
January and 11 dollars - in February, 1998 Thus in the USA, the core
The buyer of the Mexican oil, the price for a mix "majja" in the middle
February have fallen to 9 dollars for barr. This circumstance is inevitable
Will affect all macroindicators of 1998 and has already led
To that the profitable part of the budget has been reduced by 18 billion in m.
Peso. Decrease in cost indexes leads
Necessities to increase physical volume of extraction and export
Oil. In 1998 oil recovery growth on 6 %, natural is expected
Gas - on 10 % and export volume - on 8 %.
According to the national program of development oil and gas
Complex till 2000, in number of the basic investment projects
Are switched on: working out of a gas deposit Burgos in piece
Tamaulipas (it is planned to increase manufacture by 765 million
Cubic foot. In day); oil deposit Kantarelli in piece
Kampeche; oil deposits Ku-Zaap-Malub and
Deltadel-Grihalba in piece Tabasko. Means also
To realise a number of projects in the field of oil refining, in that
Number to modernise oil refining factory in
Kadereita (piece Nuevo-Lion) to carry out building of three
The enterprises for coke manufacture to expand the industrial
Capacities of the enterprise in the cities of Madero, Minatitlan,
Salina-Krus, Tula and Salamanca.
Since 1995 the government pursues a policy
Privatisations of the enterprises of petrochemistry, counting thus
To provide inflow of investments and to recover branch. Declared in
The end of 1995 - the beginning of 1996 the auctions on sale of some objects,
Including petrochemical complexes "Kosoleakake", "La
Kangrehera "," Kadereita "," Morelos "and" Paharitos ", were
Are transferred at first for 1997, then for 1998
Uncertainty of position of branches has led to stagnation in
Investments., In particular, the package has been frozen
Capital investments at a rate of 1600 mln. dollars most
"Pemex-Petroquimica", private sector programs are postponed
At a rate of 800 mln. dollars
Position was aggravated because of falling of internal demand on
Petrochemistry production, first of all from manufacturers
Fertilizers. Set of factors has led to stagnation, and then and
To slump in production in branch: in 1994 manufacture
The petrochemical goods has made 19 million t, in 1995 - 18,8
Million, in 1996 18,4 million, and in 1997 has hardly reached 16 million
Last year manufacture considerably became more active
Practically in all branches of a manufacturing industry.
Especially important revival in those branches is represented,
Which have been to the greatest degree mentioned by crisis of 1994
So, manufacture in tselljuloznobumazhnoj the industries
Has grown on 13,7 % (in 1995 recession made 15 %, and in 1996 -
1,3 %), in metallurgy - on 12,9 %, manufacture of products from
Precious metals - on 12,6 %, in the textile industry
On the average made 10,75 %. Especially high rates
The mechanical engineering (almost 17 %) developed.
Mexico has the developed ferrous metallurgy; on volume
Manufactures it occupies 2 place in Latin America after
Brazil also is a steel big exporter, including
Hire and pipes of an oil and gas assortment. This branch
Is one of most dynamically developing sectors
Economy of Mexico. The share.metallurgicheskoj production makes
4,6 % of total amount of industrial production and more than 1 % of gross national product
The countries.
In 1991 in Mexico scale privatisation has been spent
The ferrous metallurgy enterprises, and first of all most
Large and technologically perfect factories. It has accelerated
Process of upgrade of the enterprises that has provided a gain
Manufacture volumes, improvement of quality and
Competitiveness of production.
In 1997 ferrous metallurgy production
Has reached record level - 14,5 million t. This indicator was
It is provided as a result of the general revival of economy, growth
Internal demand as a whole, including on metal.
National consumption of metal and hardware has grown on
10 %. Capacities, as well as last year, worked
With loading above 90 %. Process of upgrade proceeded and
Introductions of new technologies. Large investments have been made
Such companies, as "AHMSA", "Imexa", "Grupo
Villacero "," Hylsamex "," IMSA ". Ha 20 % production export has grown
Ferrous metallurgy (2 bln. dollars) at simultaneous decrease
Its import on 30 %. It is expected, that in 1998 povyshatelnaja
The tendency will be saved also manufacture volume will make 15-16 million
t.
Cost of production of mechanical engineering of Mexico makes 2 %
Gross national product and 8 % of industrial production. On release volume
Cars Mexico is on 7th place among 45 countries -
World manufacturers (million unit):
The USA - 12,3, Japan - 10,5, Germany - 4,4, France - 4,0,
Republic Korea - 2,3, Brazil 1,5, Mexico - 1,4. In
To Latin America Mexico occupies on this indicator 2
Place after Brazil. Release is organised on the basis of assemblage from
Import sites and the details, which share in the ready car
Makes 70 %.
In 1997 in Mexico the law obliging has been passed
avtomobilestroitelnye the enterprises to increase a share
National components in ready cars. In February 1998
By the amendment to the law it has been established, that the national
Participation should make not less than 34 %. Behind performance
Law positions the strict control is established. Some
Firms have already declared that their models contain enough
High relative density of components of the Mexican manufacture:
"Chrysler" - 50 %, "Ford" - 40 %, "General Motors" - 34 %. IN
Result of this new policy it is expected, that in 1998
Sales of automobile parts and sites for assemblage will grow on 10
- 15 %. In 1997 of their sale have made 8 bln. dollars
Last year the sales volume of cars has made 1400 thousand
Unit, i.e. Was on 11 % above, than in 1996, and on 23 % above, than
In 1994 Nevertheless, the position analysis in the market of the new
Cars shows, that their sales in 1997 were on 32 %
More low, than in 1994 Only "MercedesBenz" and "General Motors"
Increase in the sales in comparison with 1994 have achieved
(Accordingly on 35 and 30 %), other companies of sale
Have lowered:
"Chrysler" - on 43 %, "Ford" - on 25 %, "Nissan" - on 36 %,
"Volkswagen" on 58 %. It testifies that, nesmotrja
On obvious successes, motor industry yet
Completely uses the potential.
Mexico is one of the world's largest manufacturers
And exporters of some agricultural products and
Articles of food - sugar, vegetables and fruit,
Fruit juice, the coffee, the frozen fruit, etc. Together with
That value of agriculture for a national economy in
Last two decades decreases. A share of this sector in gross national product
In 1997 made 6 %, rates of a gain of manufacture
Agricultural production lag behind as rates of growth
Gross national product, and industrial production. In 1997
The agricultural production continued to remain in
Stagnation status, the increase has made only 1,4 %.
Agriculture - the least developed sector of economy
Mexico. It is characterised low by labour productivity
And profitability of manufacture, extensive methods
Managing and rather low productivity of cultures.
Agricultural workers receive the salary more low
Living wage. The tendency to the relative is observed
To reduction of prices on branch production at a simultaneous rise in prices
On fertilizers and agricultural machinery. Mexico concerns
To number of the countries with extreme climatic conditions, 60 %
The areas are in a zone of risky agriculture.
In 1997 results of branch were influenced by consequences
Hurricane "Paulina", burst in October, 1997,
Which has mentioned 2 million in hectares, and also a drought and unexpected
Frosts. Drought consequences are considered as the most catastrophic
For last 15 years. For example, in piece of Chihuahua as a result
Droughts the cattle livestock was cut by half from 2,5 million to 1,1
Million goals. In 1997 in states CHiapas, Gerrero, Idalgo,
Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaskala, Sakatekas by a drought it has been mentioned 615
Thousand in hectares.
The basic role in the Mexican agriculture is played by cultivation
So-called base cultures: grain, bean and olive.
Representation about the sizes of their gathering is given by the following table
(Thousand):
1995 1996 1997
In total 28784 31245 33431
Rice 387 394 443
String bean 1271 1349 1508
Corn 18352 18025 19819
Wheat 3488 3375 3805
Kunzhut 21 47 43
Cotton seed 343 421 367
Soya 190 56 135
Barley 486 586 610
Sorgo 4170 6810 6533
With a view of assistance to development of the agricultural
Manufactures in Mexico are created some the state
Funds and institutes. Most important of them - the Union in support
Peasants ("Alianza para el Campo" and the assistance Program
To agriculture ("Procampo"). The development Program is accepted
Agriculture and animal industries on 1997 - 2000 However
All these programs are low-power enough. For example, in I
Half-year 1997 only assistance has been rendered 630 farms in
To job on participation in 6 international exhibitions.
Forecasts of economic development of Mexico for 1998,
Published both official sources, and independent
Experts including foreign, it is enough
Are optimistical. It is connected with the obvious tendency to revival in
The industries, activization of internal demand, decrease
Inflations. A gain of gross national product expected in 1998 - 4,5 %, level
Inflations - 12 %, the size of the interest rate - to 15 - 16 %. A course
The peso in relation to dollar by the end of year, possibly, will make
8,85 m. of peso for 1 dollars Inflow of the state investments
Can increase on 8,5 - 9,4 %, private on 16 - 19 %. Thus
Direct investments can increase on 8 bln. dollars Unemployment
Will make 3,2 % of economically active population.
Further the basic indicators of development of the Mexican are resulted
Economy:
1996 1997 1998
Gain of gross national products (%) 5,1 7 4,5-5
Inflation (%) 28 15,7 12
Deficiency payment -
nogo balance on
Flowing an opera -
tsijam (bln. dollars) 1,7 2,9 5,0
Foreign in -
vestitsii (billion
Dollars) 16,2 12 17
Currency reserves
(Bln. dollars) 17,5 28 25,2
External debt
(Bln. dollars) 166,0 156,0 175,0
According to estimations of experts, in 1998 Mexico will face with
A number of negative factors, first of all with shortage of the financial
Resources and instability of a course of the peso, connected with overestimate
Rate of national currency in relation to dollar. Falling
The world prices for oil it is fraught for Mexico further
Updating of the indicators of development planned for 1998, in
Particulars, have been reconsidered the budget project for 1998 In opinion
Experts, the most probable measures on overcoming
Consequences of decrease in receipts from oil export can become
The further devaluation of national monetary unit (to
Level of peso of 8,75 m. for 1 dollars) and increase in sales
The state securities.
(On materials of the Trade mission of the Russian Federation in Mexico).
//* an information Source: BIKI, 28.04.98
//* Reg. Nom. - 1080400281.01-------------------------------------------
|
