Dubai sustains losses because of crisis in Russia.
Dubai sustains losses because of crisis in Russia.
Three years ago the Russian business in Dubai represented
(Even to measures of this shopping centre largest in region)
The unique phenomenon, first of all thanks to the scales.
Thousand unorganized Russian tourists got almost
Any production offered dubajskimi by businessmen.
Were organised special sea and charter
Aviatransportations, the container form of sending was widely used
The goods. The Russian Federation it was represented sverhemkim by the market, capable to absorb
In a large quantity textiles, electronic and electrotechnical
Home appliances, products from gold, silver, pearls, skin and so forth
Activization of the Russian-dubajskoj trade occurred just in
The period of the beginning of failures on the Iranian direction which is major
In reeksportnom business emirata. Trading firms of Dubai prospered
Thanks to scales of the business and rather competitive
To the prices.
Now the conjuncture has changed radically.
In the beginning deterioration of conditions for business has occurred
Owing to the decision of the Russian government to increase taxation
And to strengthen restrictions concerning luggage of physical persons,
Arriving to the Russian Federation. Then rouble "collapse" has followed, has burst
obshcheekonomichesky the crisis accompanied by sharp recession
The Russian import. In Dubai cases of "flight" have become frequent from
emirata dealers foreign textiles, gold, electronics,
Having large outstanding promissory notes. By estimations
dubajskih banks, because of crisis in Russia have suffered approximately 400
dubajskih dealers, there was a repayment debitorskoj
Debts for a 500 million total sum dirh.
As marks the London weekly journal "MEED" while it is difficult
To estimate true scales arisen in emirate problems. Obviously
The official statistics which has arrived from the Russian Federation after is insufficient
"Black Monday" on August, 17th. It is necessary to consider, that
The Russian trade with Dubai carries basically the unorganized
Character also is not always reflected in statistical data. Therefore,
According to official sources, the Russian Federation occupies only 11 place in
The list of leading addressees reeksportnyh the goods from Dubai (in 1997
Their it is bought on 407 million dirh.). It is necessary to accept in
Attention also that circumstance, that a considerable part
Production got there it is taken out through another emirat -
Shardzha, which export only in September, 1998 it was reduced on
50 %.
More accurate representation about degree of deterioration of a conjuncture
Give some private certificates. So, Association
Manufacturers of textiles declares, that participation of Russia in trade
This production has decreased to 5 % of its total amount, whereas
Earlier made 30 - 35 %. Distributors of the electrogoods
Estimate decrease in deliveries in the Russian Federation in 10 - 15 % (recession about such
Scale took place in 1996 and 1997).
"The Russian factor" influences not only trade,
But also on other branches. Till 1991 number of tourists from Russia in
Dubai it was close to zero, and in 1996 has reached approximately 322
Thousand, that more than from any other country. However in January -
June, 1998 recession on 12,1 % - to 128 thousand is registered, and in
July - December - still bolshee decrease. Essential losses has incurred
Hotel business. Owners of the multiroom have especially suffered
The buildings specially constructed for expired fifth anniversary in Bar Dubai
And Deira for service of a stream of the Russian tourists.
It is necessary to adapt for new conditions and local banks.
They do the basic rate on service large and
Enough stable firms. Are extremely reluctantly given
Low-percentage credits an average in the sizes to the companies,
Textiles engaged in trade and electronics. In the bank
Sector the volume of rendered services decreases, amplifies
Competition, requirements to reliability of clients raise.
Predictably, business recession in Dubai will have
Long-term character, in particular in connection with infringement
Stability of deliveries to a foreign market of the major goods.
Serious problems have arisen with textiles and electronics sale,
On which share in re-export of Dubai 25 %, or 4 billion are necessary
Dollars a year. In textile sector only it is the most effective
Working dealers can adapt for new conditions. In
The beginning of their 1998 was almost 600, that in 10 times more,
Than seven years ago.
Crisis in Russia has occurred just in decrease in the world
The prices for oil. Its extraction in emirate makes about 230 thousand
Barr./days the Indirect consequence of preservation of a languid conjuncture
In the oil market there is a reduction of visitings of Dubai by inhabitants
The countries of Persian gulf (on their share 20 % of the general are necessary
Number of clients dubajskih hotels), so, reduction
Currency incomes emirata.
Immediate prospects reeksportnogo business are adverse.
Its scales in 1997 have grown only on 3,3 % (to 5 bln. dollars)
Against 23 % in 1996 growth Delay occurs despite
Re-export expansion to Iran which is for Dubai the largest
The partner. In October, 1998 the government of Iran declared about
Intention to achieve reprogrammirovanija parts external
Debts, that indirectly testifies to possibility of the new
Problems with the Iranian purchases in Dubai. Intensity preservation in
Relations between Iran and Afghanistan renders the constraining
Influence on re-export from Dubai to Afghanistan, which in the last
Three years entered into the six of leading addressees of the goods from this
emirata. Negative influence renders periodic closing
The irano-Afghani border through which there passes the basic route
The foreign trade cargoes following from Dubai to Kabul. A little
Will weaken the general unfortunate trend prospective expansion
dubajskogo re-export in the African and Mediterranean countries.
A number of economists in Dubai consider, that present difficulties
dubajskoj the economy called in basic deterioration of the position in
Russia, have also the positive side: they will force to result
Available capacities in conformity with requirements and to strengthen
Competitive positions dubajskih trading firms.
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//* an information Source: BIKI, 13.02.99
//* Reg. Nom. - 1090200239.09-------------------------------------------
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