Peru - economy Development in 1998
Peru - economy Development in 1998
1998 has appeared for Peru year of economic tests.
Negative influence on a national economy
The climatic phenomenon "Ale Nino" and the world financial
Crisis as economists consider, became the recession reason in
The industries. Only by the end of year there were revival signs
The economy, however separate branches (first of all fishery)
Completely and were not restored. As a result of gross national product for a year has grown
Only on 0,7 % - to 62,97 bln. dollars
Falling of the world prices for raw materials has aggravated deficiency in external
To trade which has reached 2,5 bln. dollars, that has led again
To education of deficiency of the balance of payments at a rate of 6,0 % of gross national product.
Import thus was actually reduced about 8,6 bln. dollars in 1997
To 8,2 billion, and export - from 6,8 billion to 5,7 bln. dollars
The rigid restrictive policy promoted preservation
To financial stability and arrangement achievement about
Re-structuring of an external debt and its decrease to 19,6 billion
Dollars Rates of inflationary increase of the prices have decreased to 6 % -
Record indicator for the country (6,5 % in 1997). Suppression
Attempts of gamble in the currency market has allowed in the defined
Degrees to supervise the devaluation process, which sizes
14,4 % against 5,1 % in 1997 were equaled, and at the same time to lower
Approximately on 12 % traditionally overestimated rate of national currency.
The tendency to increase in inflow of the long-term was saved
Capitals from abroad, though financial crises in Brazil and
Russia constrained participation of foreign investors in privatisation
The state enterprises and the auctions at Limsky stock exchange. In
The purposes of overcoming of consequences of crisis in South East Asia and
Russia interaction with the international considerably became more active
Credit institutes, and first of all from IMF. Have been received
Additional credits for strengthening financially-bank
Systems.
According to data of National institute of statistics and
Information, manufacture volume in the industry in 1998
Has decreased on 3,0 % in comparison with previous year. Established
Capacities of the industrial enterprises have been loaded on the average on
64,8 % against 68,6 % in 1997 To principal causes of such position
Economic experts carry consequences "Ale Nino",
Absence of bank credits, high volume of contraband
The industrial goods, and also the technical reasons (become outdated
The equipment, faults with the electric power), high cost
Import raw materials, falling of demand for a number of the Peruvian goods.
Manufacture growth was marked in 1998 in agroindustrial
Sector (3,6 %), mining (4,8 %) and metallurgical
The industries (6,8 %), and its reduction - in mechanical engineering (3,0 %)
And processing branches (11,0 %). The established capacities
The enterprises in 12 branches were used no more than on 30 %, in
11 - on 30 - 50 % and in 9 - on 85 - 90 %. The greatest loading
Capacities it was marked in 1998 in branches,
Letting out porcelain and faience ware (91 %), cardboard container
(89,4 %), glass and empties (87,9 %), plastic (88,6 %), and also
In ferrous metallurgy (85,8 %), oil refining (88,8 %), food
The industries (88,66 %), nonferrous metallurgy (88,2 %), cement
The industries (87,6 %), manufacture of mixed fodders (86,3 %).
Capacities on release of the electrohousehold goods were used on
1,15 %, fertilizers on 7,64 % and alcoholic production - on 11,75 %.
In the absence of raw materials only on 15,6 % capacities were used
On manufacture of a fish flour. The industry on manufacture
Soft drinks used 73,5 % established
Capacities, fish canned food - 30,5 %, fruit and vegetable
Canned food - 27,5 %, a paper and a cardboard - 22,36 %. In textile and
Tanning capacity branches have been loaded on 59,2 %.
In 1998 in comparison with previous year sugar manufacture
It was reduced to 32,4 %, a fish flour - on 49,7 %, a foodstuff,
Soft drinks and tobacco products - on 0,6 %, textile
And the tanning goods - on 9,7 %. Release of the chemical goods
Has increased by 2,1 %, a paper and paper container - on 3,6 %.
Peru takes the seventh place in the world on stocks of the useful
Minerals, only 15 their % however are maintained. Peru was
One of the cores in the world of manufacturers colour and precious
Metals: copper, silver, zinc, tin, gold, tungsten and
Molybdenum.
In 1998 manufacture in mining sector has increased
On 5,4 % in comparison with previous year. On its share in the past
3,7 % of total amount of gross national product and 47,4 % of export were necessary to year. Therefore
Change of the prices for nonferrous metals and gold in the world market
Seriously influences a national economy. In 1998 was
It is exported nonferrous metals and gold on 2736,8 mln. dollars (in
1997 - 2717,7 million).
Data about manufacture of mineral raw materials are more low cited, on
To data of the Department of Energy and the mining industry
(Thousand):
1997 1998
Copper 502,5 472,47
Lead 258,57 256,16
Gold () 76,8 93,78
Zinc 865,27 868,96
Silver () 2086,4 2712,6
Iron 2965,9 3223,5
Tin 27,952 26,029
Molybdenum () 3836,0 4512,0
Cadmium () 562,0 532,2
Tungsten () 280,0 82,0
Oil 6861,98 6708,43
Natural gas (million cubic) 241,57 408,52
Natural gas in a feather is used basically for household needs,
Extends in cylinders, the gas network is not present, the program
Country gasifications is absent. In this connection affirms, that
In the country practically there is no gas market. This circumstance
Has served as the main cause of a failure in July, 1998 of a consortium
"Shell-Mobil" to continue working out of the largest in Latin
To America gazokondensatnogo deposits "Camisea". In III quarter
1999 the government of Peru intends to spend the international
The auctions on working out of this deposit.
The oil refining branch is presented a family
The enterprises.
Five of them: "La Pampilla", "Talara", "Canchan", "Yquitos",
"El Milargo" provide more than 96 % of internal requirements,
95 % of tanks for storage of mineral oil own. Manufacture
Mineral oil in 1998 has increased by 5,97 %, industrial
Capacities were used on 88,4 % (in 1997 - on 86,8 %).
In 1998 the volume of civil work has increased on 2,3 % on comparison
Since 1997 In total in Peru it is registered 284
The building companies from which 150 are in Lima. By data
Building chamber of Peru, building of hotels, many-storeyed
Apartment houses and office buildings 6,1 % of the companies are engaged,
Irrigational systems - 3,0 %, school buildings - 9,5 %, LEP - 10,6 %,
Medical and sanitary objects - 16,7 %, individual habitation
- 11 %, roads - 19,8 %.
In 1998 on a public sector share 61,7 % were necessary
Volume of building and on a share private - 38,3 %. The government
Peru has planned to allocate about 300 mln. dollars for building
New highways in 1999 Planned for last year
The program of building, reconstruction and high system repair
It has been executed only on 30 - 35 %.
According to data of Association of manufacturers of cement, in 1998
Its manufacture has increased by 7,17 % in comparison with 1997 and
Has made 4350,52 thousand t, and internal consumption - 4537,4 thousand
t.
Suitable for agricultural use are considered
Only 7,6 million in hectares, or 5,9 % of territory of Peru. In 1998 growth
Manufactures in plant growing has made 2,0 %, agroindustrial
Sector - 3,6 % and animal industries - 7 %.
Rice gathering (6,1 %), coffee (6,2 %), the firm yellow have increased
Corn (16,0 %), barley (20,1 %), cocoa-beans (14,9 %), whereas
Clap manufacture has decreased for 34,6 %, a sugar cane -
On 17,7 %, sorgo - on 73,9 %, a soya - on 60,2 %. For maintenance
Internal requirements for the foodstuffs for 1998 of Peru
Imported agricultural production on 779,3 mln. dollars
Sugar-raw manufacture in 1998 has decreased for 40,5 % on
To comparison with previous year also has made 401,0 thousand t (in 1997
- 674,0 thousand. Loading of the enterprises of branch made
41,1 %.
Sugar cane in comparison with 1997 it has been prepared on
17,7 % are less, the sucrose maintenance in him has decreased on 25 %.
Areas under crops under a sugar cane have decreased for 32 % -
From 28,16 thousand in hectares in 1997 to 21,4 thousand a year later. In 1998
Sugar import has increased by 76,3 % in comparison with the previous
Year, and export has decreased on 22,1 %.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Peru, manufacture
Pasta in 1998 has decreased in comparison with 1997
On 7,9 % - to 202,0 thousand t. Wheat flour manufacture
Has reached 858,78 thousand t (in 1997 - 805,2 thousand). Import of it
Product has decreased about 8,85 mln. dollars in 1997 to 6,5 million in
Last year.
Manufacture of food vegetable oils and margarine has decreased
In 1998 on 4,8 %. Last year it has been made 221,5 thousand t
Production against 232,7 thousand in 1997 the Established capacities
Were used on 77,2 %. Within a year it has been imported 149,2
Thousand t olive, soya and sunflower-seed oil in comparison with
139,4 thousand t in 1997 from Argentina, the USA, Italy, France and Chile.
According to data of the National society of the industry of Peru, in
To the country 69 % of consumed tobacco products, 8 % are issued
It is imported and 23 % are imported into the country by contraband.
In 1998 there was a decrease in volume of manufacture in fishery
And rybopererabatyvajushchej branches on 35,7 %. In total last year
It has been caught 4251,1 thousand t seafood, i.e. On 41,6 %
It is less, than in 1997 On a fish flour and cod-liver oil was
It is processed 3643,2 thousand t fishes, and on fish canned food - 179,4
Thousand t (352,1 thousand in 1997). The established capacities of the enterprises
On manufacture of a fish flour and cod-liver oil have been loaded on
15,6 %, fish canned food - on 30,5 %. In 1998 in the country was
It is made about 730,0 thousand t a fish flour.
According to the forecasts, expected vylov seafood in 1999
Will make 6 - 6,2 million t, and receipts from export - 850 - 900
Mln. dollars To 1998 of Peru exported seafood on 633,5
Mln. dollars (in 1997 - on 1353,3 million). Export volume on
To comparison since 1997 has decreased on 46,8 %. The basic importers
The Peruvian fish flour in 1998 were the Peoples Republic of China - 23 %, Germany - 20 %,
Japan - 8,3 %, Turkey - 5,7 %, Iran - 4,6 %, Ecuador - 4,0 %,
France - 3,9 %, Australia - 3,7 %, Philippines - 3,3 %, Taiwan -
3,0 %.
In 1998 because of consequences of world financial crisis in
Privatisation process in Peru there was a recession. Instead of
Planned about 1000,0 mln. dollars during it it was possible
To gain only 300 million the largest means have been received in
Result of sale of actions of bank "Banco Continental" for the sum 65
Mln. dollars Among the sold enterprises are also "Ergusa",
"Cementos Rioja", "Pisco Norte" and 4 gold mining enterprises,
Belonging "Centromin Peru".
According to data of the governmental commission on privatisation in
Result of this process, in 1991 - 1998 managed to be received
8800,0 mln. dollars, and also obligations on capital investments in
The privatised enterprises for the sum 7089 mln. dollars In 1999
It is planned to gain nearby 800 - 1000,0 mln. dollars and approximately
600 - 700 mln. dollars to obtain in the form of capital investments in the given
The enterprises. 1999 should become the cores for delivery in concession
The enterprises and objects of an infrastructure (seaports,
The airports, highway and railways).
Indicators of a status of economy of Peru are more low resulted, agree
To estimations and forecasts of the Ministry of Economics and the finance.
1998 1999
The forecast the Estimation the Forecast
Gross national product (bln. dollars) 64,2 62,97 63,0 - 64,0
Growth of gross national products (%) 3,5 - 4,0 0,7 2,0 - 2,5
Gross national product per capita (dollars) 2280 - 2300 2250,0 2300 - 2350
Inflation (%) 8,0 6,0 8,0
External debt (gross national product %) 34 - 36 37,1 36 - 38
Export (bln. dollars) 6,3 5,72 7,1
Import (bln. dollars) 8,8 8,2 9,3
Deficiency of trading balance (% 2,5 2,5 2,2
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)
Deficiency of the balance of payments (% 5,9 6,0 6,0
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)
Currency reserves (bln. dollars) 11,0 9,9 9,5
The foreign trade turnover of Peru in 1998 has made 13922,9 million
Dollars, including export - 5722,9 million and import - 8200,0 million,
I.e. In comparison with 1997 export was reduced approximately to 16,0 % and
Import - on 4,12 %.
The basic goods of the Peruvian export, as well as earlier, were
(Bln. dollars) colour both precious metals and concentrates from them -
2,7 (including copper - 0,78, gold - 0,925, zinc - 0,445),
Fish flour - 0,39, the agricultural goods - 0,62 (coffee,
Cocoa, clap), the goods of nonconventional export (the textile
Products, fish canned food, the chemical goods, products from the colour
Metals, pumps, autotyres, spare parts for engines,
Accumulators, cement, ceramic tile, products from a tree,
Jewels, mahogany, etc.) - 2,0 billion
The share of production of mining branch was equaled 47,8 % of the general
Volume of export, fishery - 7,1 %, the industries - 15,25 %,
Agroindustrial sector - 10,9 %, nefteprokdutov - 3,9 %.
The countries "NAFTA" were the basic commodity markets of the Peruvian goods
(The USA, Canada, Mexico) - 27,6 % of volume of export (in 1997 -
25,0 %), the Western Europe - 18,7 % (15,0 %), Asia - 11,4 % (24,0 %),
"GRAN" and "Mercosur" - 17,4 % (12 %).
The core a place in the Peruvian import to 1998 belonged
To industrial and agricultural raw materials, fuel, butters and
To other mineral oil for a total sum 3,4 bln. dollars, further
Cars and the equipment (2,6 billion) and consumer followed
The goods (1,8 billion). The basic suppliers of the goods in Peru were
The USA, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Spain, Italy,
France, Japan, Canada, the Peoples Republic of China, Mexico, Republic Korea and
Taiwan.
The volume of internal investments into 1998 has decreased for 2,8 % and
Has made 24,0 % of gross national product, including private were reduced to 2,6 % and
State - on 1,9 %. In 1999 it is provided them
Increase at 9 % (private - on 10 %, state - on 7 %).
Private investments concentrate basically in three branches:
Communications, to power and the mining industry.
The rate of inflation in the country has decreased from 6,5 % in 1997 to 6,01 % in
Last year (the lowest indicator after 1972), including
The rise in prices for a foodstuff and drinks has made 9,0 %, clothes and
Footwear - on the average 5,6 %, tariffs for service in system
Public health services - 5,0 %, on transport services - 2,7 %, on
Education and rest - 10,6 %. Volume of direct foreign investments
In Peru in 1998 has increased by 0,6 bln. dollars in comparison with
1997 - to 7,7 billion Transfer of profits from Peru has reached more than 60
Mln. dollars of New long-term and intermediate term credits was
It is received on 2,0 bln. dollars, short-term - on 3,3 bln. dollars
The international company according to risks "Standart and Pп?п?rs"
Has saved classification of Peru (VV) at the same level, that Argentina
And Mexico. It is a recognition of achievements of Peru in area
The economy, received during structural reforms, observance
Tax and monetary discipline, creation favorable
Climate for foreign investments and achievement of moderate level
Short-term debts. According to the experts, specified
Classification will have for Peru positive value in 1999,
As banks and investors direct the capitals in more
Profitable and less risky countries, among which, obviously,
There can be Peru.
The volume of currency reserves of Peru in 1998 was reduced to 9,2 billion
Dollars External debts (long-term and intermediate term)
The countries on the end of 1998 it was estimated in 23,4 bln. dollars, in that
Number state - in 19,6 bln. dollars the Short-term debt
Has made 6,6 bln. dollars In 1999 it is supposed to allocate on
Service of an external debt 1,7 bln. dollars
In 1998, according to statements of the Russian and Peruvian parties,
Practically the debt of Peru to Russia has been completely settled in
The size about 1,1 bln. dollars by its reduction to 130 million
Dollars; its repayment has been finished last year. Russian
The organisations can be connected to use of credits
The international financial organisations in case of a prize of the auctions on
Building of power stations, transmission lines, objects
Water supply and the water drain, etc. (On materials of the Trade mission of the Russian Federation
In Peru).
<$>
//* an information Source: BIKI, 6.07.99
//* Reg. Nom. - 1090700107.15-------------------------------------------
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